Bowl Predictions, Fiesta Bowl

Fiesta Bowl: Pittsburgh (41) vs. Utah (4)
Pittsburgh needed a miracle to be here. They became the biggest fans that Syracuse ever had in the Orange's game against Boston College. When the Orange ran all over the Eagles, Pittsburgh was all but eating chips and salsa. The end of the Panther season saw them win 6 of 7 and come out on top by barely scraping into the BCS final standings, winning the tie breaker with Syracuse. This will be Walt Harris's final game as head coach before moving on to Stanford next season. Instead the Panthers will be led by Dave Wannstedt, a former Pittsburgh player and assistant. When he takes over, he will be taking over with a great combo in junior quarterback Tyler Palko and sophomore receiver Greg Lee. Palko was probably the best quarterback that no one had heard of until his performance against Notre Dame late in the season. He made sure they remembered his name when Pittsburgh trounced South Florida on the final week of the season. Palko threw for 2816 yards and 23 touchdowns. Nine of those touchdowns and 1204 of those yards went to Lee who was the top receiver for the Panthers. Both look to be back next year when Pittsburgh will most likely be favored along with Louisville in the new look Big East. The Panther defense won't stop you from gaining many yards. What they will do is force turnovers. They were +12 in that category and will be looking to try and exploit that in the Fiesta Bowl.

Urban Meyer is also coaching his final game for Utah before moving on to Florida next season. Meyer has taken the Utah team from 5-6 two years ago to 10-2 last year and an undefeated mark and a BCS bowl this year. The first team from a non-BCS conference to break the fabled formula, Utah will be looking to pull a bigger upset than that and win the Fiesta Bowl, a first for a team from the Mountain West conference. Meyer will be looking to leadership from his quarterback Alex Smith. Smith was a Heisman finalist and when he sat on the stage, he was the only player not playing in the Orange Bowl making him the one to watch in this game. Smith tallied 2624 yards and 28 touchdowns while only throwing 4 interceptions. Smith has only lost one game as a starter and thrown only 7 interceptions the pat two seasons. In the spread offense, Smith will be looking to pick apart the Panther defense by hitting his two main receivers Steve Savoy and Paris Warren who caught 22 of his touchdown passes. And don't think Smith won't run the ball. He was the third leading rusher on the team and tallied 10 touchdowns of his own on the ground. Running with Smith will be Marty Johnson and Quinton Ganther. Johnson is a senior and got 14 touchdowns this year but saw limited action in the Utes' last game. Look for Utah to use the run to set up their long passing attack against the vulnerable Pittsburgh defense. Utah's defense was +16 in turnovers for second in the nation in that category. Look for the turnover battle to be big in this game as neither defense will be stopping the chains from moving very often.

MRI Predicts: Utah Confidence factor: 82.26%, 28 out of 28 
© 6:30 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Bowl Predictions, Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl: Michigan (20) vs. Texas (7)
Mack Brown did the campaigning and got his team into the BCS, ruining Cal's hopes to make it for the first time in 40 years. As a reward, Brown got his contract extended for another decade, meaning that Oklahoma will win the next ten meetings in the regular season. But Brown isn't worried about Oklahoma right now. He is instead trying to make history and become the second Big XII team to win the Rose Bowl in the last three years. They will need a big game from their big game guy, Cedric Benson. On the ballot for the Heisman, Benson rang up 1764 yards on the ground and broke the plane 19 times during the season. A senior, he has topped the 1000 yards mark all four years and will be looking to close out his career with a big game to impress the NFL scouts. Incidentally, the only game Benson did not reach 100 yards this season was against Oklahoma. If Michigan watches that game, they may find out that shutting down Benson is akin to shutting down Texas. Quarterback Vince Young will attempt to pass the ball a bit against the Michigan defense but he is more effective when he takes the ball on the ground himself. He threw for only 1669 yards and 11 touchdowns. At the same time, he threw 10 interceptions so it is dangerous when he throws it up. He also ran for 887 yards for the season meaning that the Michigan defense and Ernest Shazor will be busy containing both men. Look for Shazor to play up more than drop in coverage.

For Michigan's side of the ball, everything is looking rosy. Sure, they backed into the Rose Bowl, almost losing the Big Ten on the last week of the season. They can thank Iowa that they aren't playing in the Outback or Capital One Bowl instead of Pasadena. What is scary is that Michigan may be playing in Pasadena the next three seasons after this given their young team. No Big Ten team has ever played in more than four in a row and that was Ohio State. Given the rivalry between those two teams, you know Michigan would love to break that record. On offense, freshmen Chad Henne and Mike Hart have been the story all season. Henne doesn't look like a freshman when he lines up behind center. He threw for 2516 yards and 21 touchdowns while only making 12 miscues. Hart racked up 1372 yards after barely seeing the field in the first two games. He crossed the goal line nine times. His worst game of the year came in the final when he was held under 100 yards after 5 games in a row over that mark including 3 over 200. When Henne takes to the air, you know he will be looking for senior Braylon Edwards who caught 87 passes for 1221 yards and 12 scores. Edwards is one of the more explosive players in college football and will most likely be playing on Sunday next year. Texas's defense has been tough all season. Look for them to try and rush Henne out of the pocket and force him to make decisions on the run. If they can do that enough, he will most likely make some mistakes that lead to turnovers.

MRI Predicts: Texas Confidence factor: 65.75%, 23 out of 28 
© 3:30 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Bowl Predictions, Part 4

Happy New Year! When you are letting that hangover pass away, and clearing up the Champagne bottles that litter your house, make sure you tune in to some college football. The MRI is 8-8 after Thursday night's games and many of the experts are only 9-7 so we aren't too far behind. Here are the previews for 2005's first football, the 4 non-BCS games.

Outback Bowl: Georgia (16) vs. Wisconsin (30)
Wisconsin was rolling along at 9-0 until two devastating losses threw their train off the tracks. They lost by over 20 points on consecutive weeks to Michigan State and Iowa to end their season and kill any hopes of the Rose Bowl. The Badgers bring a very good defensive team to the game starring defensive end Erasmus James. He should give the Georgia offense fits all day long as they try to counter him. On offense look for Wisconsin to mix it up between the pass and run. Quarterback John Stocco played well when he had time in the pocket. When running the ball look for Wisconsin to hand to Senior Anthony Davis. Wisconsin has its troubles on offense so they will have to try and slow down the attack of Georgia with their defense and hope to keep it close if they want to win. Georgia counters with their own great defense headed up from by senior end David Pollack. The difference here is that Georgia has no big issues on offense. Headed by senior David Greene at quarterback, they have the all-time winningest passer in the history of Division 1-A football. Greene threw for 2244 yards and 18 scores while only throwing two interceptions. He will be backed by a freshman duo of Thomas Brown and Danny Ware. When Greene throws look for Reggie Brown and Fred Gibson to be giving the Wisconsin defense fits downfield. The Badgers are good on defense but Georgia is that much better on offense and we have seen how a good passing team can beat Wisconsin before. MRI Predicts: Georgia Confidence factor: 74.42%, 20 out of 28

Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M (17) vs. Tennessee (26)
Tennessee won the Eastern division of the SEC but it was due to their play early in the season when they had Erik Ainge running the team at quarterback. After his injury in the loss against Notre Dame, Tennessee had two scares in a row against Vanderbilt and Kentucky with Rick Clausen leading the team. Chances are the Vols won't be passing much. Clausen's miscue against the Irish was what cost them the game and they instead will feature two running backs who have the ability to punish. Junior Gerald Riggs topped the 1000 yard mark for the Volunteers while senior Cedric Houston just missed it. Together they crossed the goal line 12 times on the ground. Look for them to try that attack on Saturday. Texas A&M is Reggie McNeal's team. Despite an opening loss to Utah which everyone thought was a fluke until Utah kept doing it, the Aggies put together a great season. Ignore the Baylor loss, another fluke. Three of their four losses came against BCS teams. McNeal was stellar through the air and on the ground. A Michael Vick-like player, McNeal threw for 2550 yards and gained 700 more on the ground. He was responsible for 21 of the team's touchdowns and will most likely give the Volunteer defense a lot to think about. When McNeal doesn't take off on his own down the field, look for sophomore Courtney Lewis to get the ball. A&M's offense should be too much for the Vols, and the Vols don't have much to counter with when Clausen is behind center. This one should be the Aggies' game. MRI Predicts: Texas A&M Confidence factor: 71.95%, 25 out of 28

Gator Bowl: Florida State (10) vs. West Virginia (28)
I talked about this game a bit a few weeks ago. In my mind it comes down to whether the Florida State offense can be at all effective. They are playing a "home"-type game by still staying in Florida and that has been a good thing for the offense. But being outside of Tallahassee has given both Chris Rix and Wyatt Sexton fits. Rix will most likely get the start if Bobby Bowden is at all true to form. He has stuck with the senior despite terrible play time and again. Sexton will probably be called in to relieve him sometime early in the second and will do enough to keep the Seminoles in front. West Virginia is not a good bowl team. They also have a big let down by letting the Big East, which looked like a runaway for them at the beginning of the season, run away from them. Their quarterback Rasheed Marshall will run the offense. Like Reggie McNeal at A&M, Marshall can hurt you with his arm and legs. He threw for 1755 yards in the air and ran for another 790 on the ground. The Florida State defense should have no problem containing him with their strong line and backs. Look for the Noles to be celebrating early in this one. MRI Predicts: Florida State Confidence factor: 82.26%, 26 out of 28

Capital One Bowl: Iowa (18) vs. LSU (15)
Coming off the National Championship last season, LSU was not picked to do much this year. They looked like the same team but the expectations weren't what they were a year ago, mostly because a year ago, they came from nowhere to be in the championship game. Their opening win against Oregon State thanks to the problems of the Beaver kicker shocked a lot of people. They then lost a close one to Auburn before Auburn was Auburn and got destroyed by Georgia. Then the season turned around for LSU. The 2-3 start was replaced by a 6 game win streak which started on a late win against Florida. In its final game under head coach Nick Saban, LSU will bring its tough defense to bear featuring Marcus Spears and Corey Webster. Their gritty offense can easily change hands between the two quarterbacks. Senior Marcus Randall is another double threat behind center, throwing well enough and quick on his feet. He threw for over 1000 yards and run for 230 more. Expect to see freshman JeMarcus Russell spell him some. Russell is not as mobile as Randall but can still get out of the pocket when he has to. If rushing was what you want to see, then Alley Broussard will be your only chance. He racked up almost 800 yards on the ground this year. Iowa certainly won't be running the ball. They were the worst rushing team in the league, barely getting over 70 yards on the ground per game. They haven't needed to run the ball much (their leading rusher has only 214 yards) as their defense has won them their ball games. They are one of the top rushing defenses in the league and were +14 in turnovers. The defense led them to a 7-1 mark in the Big Ten and a tie for the conference championship. On offense, sophomore quarterback Drew Tate will be in charge. He passed for 2500 yards and 18 touchdowns this year. He did throw three interceptions in their final against Wisconsin but look at that as an aberration rather than a rule. Tate will connect with Clinton Solomon and Ed Hinkel down the field. They caught 12 of the 18 touchdown passes this year. In the tight defensive struggle, this one could go either way. Both teams are on a big roll right now and neither one wants to see it end. MRI Predicts: LSU Confidence factor: 55.45%, 3 out of 28
 
© 1:51 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Bowl Predictions, Part 3b

New Year's Eve will feature 4 bowl games for your viewing pleasure while you wait for 2005 to dawn.

Music City Bowl: Minnesota (34) vs. Alabama (27)
Minnesota looked like gang busters coming into the season. They broke out to a 5-0 record before falling back to Earth. They limped to the end of the season with a 1-5 run where the only win came against a very poor Illinois team, and it included a loss to Indiana. For all the problems at the end of the year, the running game wasn't one of them. Averaging 255 yards a game on the ground, the Gophers come at you with twin backs. Sophomore Laurence Maroney and junior Marion Barber III play tag in the back field gaining 1243 and 1082 yards respectively. Together, they scored 22 times. If the Alabama defense contains the rushing game as it has all year, the Gophers will rely on the arm of sophomore Bryan Cupito who threw for over 2000 yards this year. Alabama will need its defense to come up strong if they hope to win this game. The #1 team in terms of defensive yardage, the Tide is led by linebackers Freddie Roach and DeMeco Ryans. Bama forced 23 turnovers this season and was +5 in that category. They will need some help from their offense to win the game. Junior quarterback Spencer Pennington turned in a big game against Auburn when the Tide almost pulled the upset in the rivalry game and made things easy for the voters in the polls. He will need to duplicate that performance against the Gopher defense which should be vulnerable through the air. The running game will be led mostly by sophomore Kenneth Darby but the Tide is very deep at the position so look for a rotation in the backfield when Alabama runs against Minnesota. Alabama's defense should be too much for the Gophers to pull this one out. MRI Predicts: Alabama Confidence factor: 71.76%, 10 out of 28

Sun Bowl: Purdue (14) vs. Arizona State (11)
Purdue looked to have everything going its way this season when they started 5-0 and were up to #5 in the National Rankings. That was when Kyle Orton and the Boilermakers dropped the ball, literally. A fumble late in the game against Wisconsin was returned for a touchdown to bring down Purdue. The next week against Michigan, Orton fumbled again late in the game while driving to try and win. After those two losses, Purdue added on two more and ended up at 7-4 on the season. Orton is the big story for this team. He was originally on pace to look like a Heisman finalist but the four losses took him down. He finished with impressive numbers, throwing for 2800 yards and 28 touchdowns. His main receiver was senior Taylor Stubblefield who caught the ball 82 times for a little over 1000 yards. 15 of those catches finished in the endzone. Unfortunately for Arizona State, they will enter the game without their star quarterback Andrew Walker. He had crushed defenses to the tune of 3150 yards this season but now will just be watching from the sideline. Instead, Arizona State will be starting sophomore Sam Keller who saw limited action this season until Walker went down in the final game against Arizona. Normally when teams get burned this way, they will go to their rushing game. The Sun Devils will be hard pressed to do that. Earlier this week, they dismissed leading rusher Hakim Hill from the team and will be starting a converted wide receiver, freshman Rudy Burgess. Burgess was impressive in his only start against Stanford, gaining 186 yards on 34 carries. When Keller does throw, he will look for junior Derek Hagan who caught 74 passes this season for over 1000 yards. He hauled in over 100 yards receiving in four of the last 5 games. This is one game that the MRI will most likely get wrong as it does not take into account the injury to Arizona State's most deadly weapon. However, look for the young Sun Devil team to put up a good fight and start preparing for life after Walker next season. MRI Predicts: Arizona State Confidence factor: 51.32%, 8 out of 28

Liberty Bowl: Louisville (3) vs. Boise State (8)
Last season, a little hyped team from Utah defeated Southern Mississippi in the Liberty Bowl, 17-0. Utah used that as a springboard this season to an 11-0 mark and the first BCS birth for a non-BCS team. This year, Louisville and Boise State are hoping that the Liberty Bowl can do the same thing with their future. Louisville won't be a non-BCS team next year. Instead, they will most likely be favored to win the Big East in their first season there. But first, they need to finish what was an amazing season for the Cardinals in their final year in Conference USA. Led by Stefan LeFors, the top rated passer in Division 1-A football, Louisville will be all over the field with its many weapons. LeFors threw for 2400 yards in the Cardinals' season which was one bad quarter against Miami away from a 11-0 mark and their own BCS birth. 9 different players rushed for scores and nine different players caught touchdown passes for this Louisville team and the list includes standouts Eric Shelton, Michael Bush, Montrell Jones, and J.R. Russell. The Boise State defense, which already has some holes, will have its hands full with trying to stop this offensive attack. At the same time, Boise State knows how to light up the scoreboard. They put up at least 55 points in each of their final four games and didn't score less than 28 all season. At quarterback, sophomore Jared Zabransky will be a tough test for the Louisville defense, but he doesn't have the array of choices that LeFors does on his side. He will be looking to hit T.J. Acree with his passes as he has all season long. Acree finished with 890 yards and 7 touchdowns and averaged over 17 yards per catch. Lining up in the backfield will be junior Lee Marks who ran for 900 yards this season. Near the goal line, look for Zabransky to take it in himself which he did 12 times, or freshman Jon Helmandollar to pound it through. Helmandollar had 13 rushing scores this season, most coming in the last 4 games. The game will come down to how well Louisville's defense can contain Zabransky. Without him leading the offense, Boise State will be hard pressed to get the win. Then Louisville will just need to keep scoring as they have all year. MRI predicts: Louisville Confidence factor: 71.76%, 13 out of 28.

Peach Bowl: Miami (12) vs. Florida (22)
Miami started out with big hopes this season. After a thrilling overtime win against Florida State, they ran out to a 6-0 start, surviving that scare against Louisville with an inspired comeback, led by Brock Berlin. Then, things started to go badly for the Hurricanes. They lost back to back games to North Carolina and Clemson, two teams who weren't even supposed to be close with Miami. The rebounded with a win against Virginia, and their offense went off on Wake Forest. They finished the season with a loss to Virginia Tech when they still had a chance to win the ACC in their first season in the league. As a result, they get a chance against Florida in the Peach Bowl. Berlin was originally recruited to Florida by Steve Spurrier, but transferred down state after Spurrier left the program. All season, he took a lot of bad press and was blamed for many of the ills of the Hurricanes. After a terrible start, Berlin was able to turn it on, just as the defense started to lose track for Miami. He finished the season with 2500 yards passing and 21 touchdowns compared with only 5 interceptions. At running back, the Hurricanes will have junior Frank Gore who came close to 900 yards this season. On defense watch senior defensive back Antrel Rolle, who should cause fits for Florida's passing game all night long. Florida comes into this game hoping to end a crazy season on a good note. The team started 4-4 and that included a loss to SEC cellar dweller Mississippi State. During those first eight games, head coach Ron Zook lost his job and yet remained with the team through the end of the regular season. He will take over at Illinois next year, hoping to turn that program around, and will definitely have his hands full. Meanwhile, the Gators were able to turn in a 7-4 record, winning the last three games of the season and earning their bowl bid despite a lot of people believing they wouldn't come close. Coming in next season will be Utah coach Urban Meyer who should love what is waiting for him when he arrives. Sophomore quarterback Chris Leak will lead the team into the Peach Bowl. He passed for almost 3000 yards this season and 28 touchdowns. With him behind center will be junior running back Ciatrick Fason, one of the most explosive backs in the game. He ran for 1173 yards and 10 scores while catching two more. Fason has declared early for the NFL draft, hoping to support his wife and two kids. Look for him to try for a big game in what could be his final one in college. If Channing Crowder can stay healthy, watch him at linebacker for the Gators. He has 70 tackles this season in only 8 games, missing the better part of two of those. If Miami's offense is working, their experience should win out against Florida. The Gators have had too many distractions for this young team and being without a head coach in the final game may be a little too much for them. MRI Predicts: Miami Confidence factor: 71.76%, 15 out of 28 
© 2:50 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Bowl Predictions, Part 3a

The MRI has taken a beating recently. 4-3 with the first seven picks, 2-3 with the next 5, and one of the wins was a 50-50 game. And after his performance last night, Teddy Ginn Jr. is now on the list of players to watch along with USC's Reggie Bush. I saw the man run 50 yards on a play where he lost two, avoiding at least 6 tackles. Hopefully things will improve as we go on. For Part 3a, we will preview the four games playing today. Part 3b will cover the Friday slate.

Continental Tire Bowl: Boston College (33) vs. North Carolina (69)
North Carolina will be playing close to a home game and maybe the fans who have started to pay attention to something other than Tarheel basketball will show up to give Boston College a hard time. North Carolina is starting to believe in itself. After starting the season 3-4 in what looked like another mediocre football season for the basketball powerhouse, the team seemed to find themselves. They won against Miami in what was probably the biggest upset of the year. The next week, they took on ACC champ Virginia Tech and played them to within a field goal. They then ran off two straight wins to get into a bowl and now the question is can they do it again. North Carolina will be looking for a big game from running back Chad Scott who seemed to spark their big wins this season, tallying 175 yards against Miami. As a senior, this will be his last game and he will want to go out on a big note. He will be looking to add to his six touchdowns in his last four games. Boston College doesn't do well at stopping the run and that may open the door for UNC. The Eagles will be trying to prove that they are not the choke artists they appeared to be after losing to Syracuse and costing themselves a chance at a BCS game. This will be the last game for Boston College as a Big East team before joining North Carolina in the ACC next season. To win, they will have to have a big game from quarterback Paul Peterson who sat out the Syracuse loss with a broken hand. He has had surgery to repair the break and will be playing against the Tarheels. Peterson is 11-2 as a starter and he will most likely be a big spark for the Eagles. He threw for 2358 yards and 16 touchdowns this season and completed over 60% of his passes. On the ground, look for two freshman backs to split the carries. L.V. Whitworth and Andre Callender will attempt to break through against a very porous North Carolina rushing defense. The Tarheels allowed close to 230 yards a game to their opponents on the ground and their pass defense wasn't stellar. The Boston College attack should be able to take this one and prove that they are better than the game against the Orange. MRI Predicts: Boston College Confidence factor: 51.32%, 7 out of 28

Emerald Bowl: Navy (47) vs. New Mexico (37)
New Mexico is 0 for the last 3 years and last year, they got crushed against Oregon State and made the MRI look silly for picking them. This year, they hope to change things and a 43 year history with a win in the Emerald Bowl. The Lobos finished second in the Mountain West behind a certain team from Utah who is just trying to go 12-0 this season. New Mexico doesn't score a lot of points, averaging just over 20 per game, but they don't have to. They boast a defense in the top 25 and punish opponents and their ground game. When they do go to offense they are led by Junior running back Dontrell Moore. Moore ran for over 1000 yards for the third straight season this year, but his production and scoring were down from the past two seasons. A big game from Moore will be key for the Lobos looking to stop Navy. The Midshipmen haven't won ten games since 1905. With a huge turnaround in their fortunes the last two seasons, Navy will be looking to add a bowl win to its resume and break that streak. Last year's loss to Texas Tech in the Houston Bowl saw the Middies rack up almost 300 yards on the ground and that will again be their goal this season. The Lobo defense will be tough to crack but Navy hopes to do it with a throwback option offense led by two seniors, quarterback Aaron Polanco and running back Kyle Eckel. Eckel ran for 1062 yards and Polanco added 844 more, scoring 24 touchdowns between the two of them. Polanco can throw when he needs to but the offense only had 1068 yards through the air this season so don't look for Navy to run many passing plays. Given the Lobo defensive strength against the rush, we should see them win their first bowl since the Aviation Bowl in 1961. MRI Predicts: New Mexico Confidence factor: 51.32%, 9 out of 28

Holiday Bowl: Cal (5) vs. Texas Tech (19)
For the second Top 25 MRI matchup, we bring the controversy. Cal finished the season just out of a BCS berth thanks to some fickle AP voters changing their vote on the final poll. Now they will be looking to take some revenge on the state of Texas with a win against passing powerhouse Texas Tech. The Golden Bears will have leadership from Junior passer Aaron Rodgers who impressed a lot of people by outplaying Heisman winner Matt Leinart in Cal's meeting with USC earlier this season. Rodgers is a completion machine finishing over 67% of his passes. He threw for over 2300 yards and 23 scores while leading his team to a 10-1 mark. Behind him will be two star backs. J.J. Arrington gets most of the press, running off 1845 yards in his senior season, leading the nation during the regular season. He also broke the goal line 14 times. Joining him in the backfield will be freshman Marshawn Lynch who added 602 yards and 7 scores of his own. The stellar Cal defense will have its hands full with the passing offense of quarterback Sonny Cumbie. He launched the ball almost 600 times for over 4200 yards and 29 touchdowns in his senior season. He did throw for 18 picks, but given that Tech doesn't run the ball much, this was the bulk of the team's turnovers. Cumbie will be looking down the field for sophomore receiver Jarrett Hicks who tallied 1108 yards receiving and caught 11 of those 29 touchdown passes. If the Red Raiders do decide to test a very tough Cal rush defense, they will go with junior Taurean Henderson who had over 800 yards and 14 scores on the ground. We have seen Cal shut down some very good offenses this season and Texas Tech will be surely tested with this game. Look for the Bears to go out to a big lead and wear the Red Raiders out for the rest of the game. MRI Predicts: Cal Confidence factor: 65.75%, 24 out of 28

Silicon Valley Bowl: Troy (38) vs. Northern Illinois (31)
When the Silicon Valley Bowl signed on again this year, the last two teams they expected to see playing would have been Northern Illinois and Troy. The game normally features a team from the WAC and one from the Pac-10. With the lack of strength that far down in the Pac-10, they decided to award that slot to a team from the MAC. And when the WAC didn't have enough eligible teams, they went with probably the best team from the SunBelt conference. The men from Troy will be playing in the school's first bowl game ever. Finishing second in the SunBelt conference, they actually put together a better season than conference champion, North Texas. Troy won two big games to start the season against Marshall and Missouri. They played LSU down to the wire before losing later in the season. On a roll of 4 straight victories, the Troy team does it with defense. Allowing just over 300 yards a game, they were +12 in the turnover department. They don't give up much on the ground but are vulnerable through the air. Senior defensive end Demarcus Ware was named SunBelt conference Defensive Player of the Year. Look for him to attack the Huskie offense up front. In the defensive backfield, senior Derrick Ansley is 3rd all time at Troy with 19 interceptions in his career. On offense, look for DeWhitt Betterson to lead the ground game. At quarterback, they will be most likely be led by D.T. McDowell, a true freshman who started and led the team to wins in their last 4 games. Northern Illinois is playing in its first bowl game since 1983. They finished tied with Toledo for the Western Division lead in the MAC this season. On offense, they will be looking to get Garrett Wolfe running against the tough Trojan defense. He rushed for 1572 yards this season and 20 touchdowns, making him one of the league leaders in scoring this season. If the Huskies throw, look for senior Dan Sheldon to get most of the catches. He had 919 yards receiving and reached the endzone 9 times. Northern Illinois should win this one if they can get running on the Troy defense. MRI Predicts: Northern Illinois Confidence factor: 71.76%, 11 out of 28 
© 9:30 AM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Bowl Predictions, Part 2

The next five bowl predictions are here. Stay tuned for even more next week on Monday when the next eight will be done, taking us through New Year's Eve. Friday will see the release of New Year's Day predictions. The Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl will get their own predictions on the day of the games.

Motor City Bowl: Toledo (49) vs. Connecticut (46)
Toledo won the MAC championship game against Miami (Ohio) on the final week of the season. This was done on the strength of the arm of Bruce Gradkowski, who threw for 250 yards and four touchdowns. Gradkowski finished the season with the 5th best passer rating in the country. In the championship game, they also had big rushing numbers turned in by Scooter McDougle who had come on strong in Toledo's final three games, gaining 412 yards since become the feature back for the Rockets. The leading receiver for the Rockets is Lance Moore, who for the second straight season caught passes for more than 1000 yards. He scored 5 of his 14 touchdowns in the final two games so look for Gradkowski to seek him out when needing a score. Connecticut is in its second year in Division 1-A, and should have gone to a bowl game last year. Instead, they had to wait until their second season and the Big East tie-in before getting their shot. The Huskies will be riding the arm of Dave Orlovsky who threw for over 3000 yards and 21 touchdowns on the season. Orlovsky likes to spread the ball around, but unfortunately for him and the Huskies, he sometimes spreads it to the other team, throwing 14 interceptions this season. Until the game against Rutgers to end the season, he had not thrown one in two games. The Scarlet Knights were able to pick him off twice though in the high scoring contest. Instead of passing, Connecticut will be most likely to rely on the legs of Cornell Brockington. Brockington gained 1146 yards and scored 11 touchdowns on the season. Toledo may be most susceptible in the run game so look for the Huskies to drive the ball on the ground in the dome. UConn is very good in pass defense, allowing just around 180 yards a game. They will have to rely on that to get the win against the Rockets. MRI Predicts: Connecticut Confidence factor: 50%, 4 out of 28

Independence Bowl: Iowa State (58) vs. Miami(Ohio) (43)
Iowa State kept themselves out of the Big XII Title game and the chance to pull the big upset when they lost to Missouri on the final week of the regular season. The Cyclones have never won in the Big XII, and sloppy play in the final week kept them from doing that again this year. They finished even in conference play at 4-4 and one of their non-conference wins came against Northern Iowa. They have no standout players and struggle to reach 200 yards passing in a game and as a team barely completing half of their passes. The run game may be where they have their only shot. Steve Hicks will lead the attack. During the season he gained 903 yards but averaged less than 4 yards a carry. If Miami can shut him down, they will have no problem in the game. On the Miami side of the ball, coach Terry Hoeppner will be coaching his final game with the RedHawks. Hoeppner accepted the Indiana head coaching job and pledged to take his new team to the Rose Bowl. He will have one final task at Miami and that is winning the Independence Bowl. When star QB Ben Roethlisberger graduated to the NFL after last season, no one expected much from Miami. A stellar 13-1 record last season was only a memory when the RedHawks began the season 2-3 with one of the wins coming against Division 1-AA Indiana State. They turned it around to win their next six before falling to Toledo in the MAC title game by a touchdown. Miami is led by Junior quarterback Josh Betts who finished the season strong, throwing 7 touchdowns in the final three contests with only two interceptions and scoring over a 150 passer rating in each contest. Betts will have help on the ground from Luke Clemens though he was shut down in the loss to Toledo. Terna Nande will help to clog up the Cyclone rushing game at linebacker. MRI Predicts: Miami(Ohio) Confidence factor: 72%, 12 out of 28

Insight Bowl: Oregon State (29) vs. Notre Dame (42)
Oregon State played the toughest schedule in the nation this season, a title that is usually hung on their opponents in the Insight Bowl. Their only three losses in conference came against the big arms of USC, Cal, and Arizona State. They dropped the opener against LSU when their kicker, Alexis Serna, missed three extra points and they got run over by Boise State on Week 2. In between all of that, they played solid football. They should have won against LSU and played USC hard in a fog played game. They could have ended the season 8-3 and looked more like a team which should be, rather than the 6-5 that they are. Senior Derek Anderson will quarterback the offense, after passing for 3257 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. Along with receiver Mike Hass, they will look to take advantage of the slower Notre Dame secondary and go up early on the Irish. Their strong passing defense should give Brady Quinn and Notre Dame fits. When the Irish take the field, it will be because the players voted to be there. After the firing of Ty Willingham, the school almost backed out of the bowl game. However, the players got together and voted to still play under defensive coordinator Kent Baer. You know that Charlie Weis will be keeping a close eye on things from New England when this one kicks off. He will be looking for some sign of heart from a team that will most likely be outplayed on the field. The Irish began the season by losing a blowout to BYU, but then recovered to win their next three and almost looked headed for another dream season under Willingham to save his job. They were 5-2 seven weeks into the season and the only other loss came when they were embarrassed by Kyle Orton and Purdue. A last second loss to Boston College and a fluke win against Tennessee preceded two terrible losses to close the season against USC and Pittsburgh. The only solace that Notre Dame can take from those losses is that both of those teams will be playing on New Years day and later in BCS bowls. The Irish offense is erratic. With Quinn at QB, Darius Walker and Ryan Grant will split the time in the backfield. To win, the Irish will have to cause turnovers and for them, the best scenario would be to intercept some of Anderson's passes. If Notre Dame can win the turnover battle and stay with the Oregon receivers, they can keep the game close and give them a chance to win. With all the craziness in South Bend lately, the program can sure use it. MRI Predicts: Oregon State Confidence factor: 72%, 16 out of 28

Houston Bowl: Colorado (62) vs. UTEP (25)
One team battled huge scandals all during the summer, including accusations of rape and illegal recruiting practices that apparently have been condoned by their coach where ever he goes. The other team finished last season 2-11, the next to last team in the MRI, and is led by a coach that was fired from his last job before coaching a game when he woke up in a shady motel after a night in a strip club and took one of the strippers back with him. Neither team expected to be in a bowl game this season, especially after all of that. Yet, Colorado and Gary Barnett managed to back their way into the Big XII title game after going 7-5 and 4-4 in conference. UTEP and Mike Price had the best turn around of the year, finishing at 8-3, and coming in second in the WAC. UTEP will be led by Sophomore QB Jordan Palmer who has improved much over last season and threw for almost 2500 yards and connected for 24 touchdowns. Don't expect him to run out of the pocket much. All the running for the Miners will be done by Howard Jackson, who topped 1000 yards for the second straight year and added 9 touchdowns of his own. A strong passing defense should allow the Miners to concentrate on stopping Buffaloes Running Back Bobby Purify. Purify topped 1000 yards himself and also had nine touchdowns. He will most likely be their main offense. They will be hoping to improve on the 46 yards of offense they had in the Big XII title game. UTEP gets a home field advantage in this game since it is played in Texas. MRI Predicts: UTEP Confidence factor: 82%, 27 out of 28

Alamo Bowl: Ohio State (32) vs. Oklahoma State (23)
Both teams are hoping that Wednesday gets here soon, otherwise, neither team will have enough players left to put onto the field. In the past few days, Oklahoma State lost two defensive players to unnamed violations, and Ohio State has suspended its starting quarterback from the final five games of the season, Troy Smith. This is bad news for Ohio State as they were 4-1 under Smith including a final week win over arch rival Michigan. Instead of Smith, Ohio State will start Justin Zwick, who was the quarterback until separating his shoulder in their game against Iowa. Until the injury, Ohio State was 3-3, seemingly on a downward spiral as all three losses came against Big Ten foes. Zwick threw for 1000 yards in the 6 games, and managed only 5 touchdowns. The Buckeyes go with running back by committee, and unfortunately, Smith was also a big part of that committee, rushing for over 300 yards. Watch out for kick returner Ted Ginn, who should also be seen as the main target for the passing game. On defense, the Buckeyes normally shine, however, this year, they were not as formidable as they have been in the past two seasons. They actually lost the turnover battle this season. Watch AJ Hawk. No one has a better name for a line backer because that is just how he attacks the opposing offense. He circles around before he zones in and hits like a hawk striking its prey. On the Oklahoma State side, the losses on defense are not as bad as Ohio State's loss of Smith. Oklahoma State lost to the other four strong teams in their division of the Big XII, but that shouldn't mean they should be overlooked here. They played A&M and Oklahoma within a few plays of winning. Look for brothers Donovan and D'Juan Woods to hook up passer to receiver at least a few times on the Buckeye defense. On the ground, Vernand Morency was one of the top 10 backs in the nation with 1454 yards and 12 touchdowns. He should give Hawk fits as he and the Ohio State defense try to bring him down. If the Cowboys can get him running just enough, it will open up the passing game for big gains down the field, exactly like they struck against the Sooners. MRI Predicts: Oklahoma State Confidence factor: 74%, 17 out of 28 
© 4:00 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Bowl Roundup So Far

The MRI took its first loss last night in the *Insert Sponsor Here* Las Vegas Bowl when Wyoming beat UCLA by scoring a touchdown with one minute remaining in the game. The MRI can not be faulted as everything went Wyoming's way in the second half to give them the win.

Late in the first half, UCLA quarterback Drew Olson was hit as he threw the ball away and sprained his left knee. Out for the game, back-up quarterback David Koral was able to do a fairly decent job of leading the team. Still, you could see that Koral was not comfortable in the pocket. At the same time, it appeared that the offensive line for the Bruins was actually a little more worried about blocking for Koral. They seemed to do a great job blocking on running plays, but the pass protection was not up to par.

With one major weapon out, the Bruins still should have won this game. They were having a great game on the ground once it got started in the second quarter. Sophomore running back Maurice Drew had a great game, gaining 130 yards on the ground. He probably could have gone for more if not for the great play of Wyoming safety Ron Rockett. Rockett made two open field tackles one on one which saved the Cowboys twice from giving up long touchdown runs. Wyoming was also missing their top two running backs and the third string was nursing an injury all game. The Bruins were also doing it on defense with great plays from Justin London who seemed to be close to the ball on every play.

The real mistake happened with one minute remaining in the 3rd Quarter. On a windy night in Las Vegas, both teams were trying to do as much as they could with the wind as possible. In order to take advantage and come back from a 14-10 half time deficit, Wyoming took the wind to start the second half. Little did they know that UCLA would run off two big drives and score a touchdown which would take away most of the time that the Cowboys had to work in the 3rd. After failing on another drive, the Cowboys punted and UCLA ran off a good return which most coaches would have been satisfied with. A holding penalty on Wyoming instead gave UCLA head coach Karl Dorrell a choice. He could either take the field position and continue to run the clock as he did for the whole of the 3rd quarter, or back up Wyoming and make them punt again from within the end zone, hoping for a block. Dorrell chose to go for the block and that was the moment this game changed.

The low line drive punt was not block and instead sailed toward Senior return man, Craig Bragg, who looked ready to catch it and run for another nice return. At the last minute, you could see Bragg take his eyes off the ball and look for the seam to run. The ball caromed off his face mask and bounced away ten yards in front of him. In the mad scramble that ensued, Wyoming recovered and the game was never the same.

Re-energized, Cowboy quarterback, Corey Bramlet, led two scoring drives through the air against the wind. He got a major contribution from junior receiver Jovon Bouknight who was a major weapon all game. Bouknight threw a touchdown to JJ Raternick in the 4th quarter to cut the lead to 21-17, a play that UCLA knew Wyoming was going to run and still couldn't stop. The final touchdown pass came up the middle to cap a 72 yard drive and give Wyoming a three point lead with only a minute left on the clock. Koral couldn't manage to drive the Bruins within field goal range before time expired.

In the other two recent bowl games, the MRI fared much better. Gino Guidugli did come back and play for Cincinnati, one the major keys to them winning. Last night, playing with a busted hand, he still threw for close to 240 yards and two scores. Cincinnati was able to knock off Marshall 32-14 to win the Fort Worth bowl. Bowling Green also got a major contribution from quarterback Omar Jacobs who threw for 365 yards and 5 touchdowns in their win over DeAngelo Williams and the Memphis Tigers in the GMAC Bowl. Bowling Green won the game by pulling away in the second half, 52-35.

The MRI is now 4-1 in bowl game picks this year.  
© 11:34 AM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Champs Sports (Tangerine) Bowl

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets kept the MRI on the winning side with their victory over Syracuse in the Champs Sports (Tangerine) Bowl. This is a scary proposition for the MRI since these were two of the lower confidence games, leading me to believe that I am going to be hit with some big time losses later in the 28 games.

For the game, Reggie Ball finally appeared as the quarterback that the Georgia Tech fans had been waiting for. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come over the next two years and the player who we all saw throw the ball away on 4th down in the game against Georgia is a thing of the past. Ball finished with 207 yards passing and three total touchdowns, two through the air and one on the ground.

Ball was assisted in the win by PJ Daniels who added 117 yards on the ground and two scores of his own. Even the defense got into the party with Chris Reis intercepting a pass on Syracuse's opening drive and returning it for a touchdown.

Syracuse did have star back Walter Reyes back for the game, but he was a non-factor and reinjured his shoulder which caused him to have to sit out the second half. He was only able to contribute 3 yards rushing and caught one pass for 18 yards before leaving the game. In general, this was a very poor performance by a team that almost snuck into the BCS bowls. Now imagine if they were playing a Utah offense who we all had confidence in before the game started as opposed to a shaky Georgia Tech team. Massacre, a word that could easily have described this game, would have been being kind.

By winning 51-14, Georgia Tech became only the second bowl team in history to score 50 points in back to back years. If the Jackets can return healthy next season, and compete with the same drive they showed in this game, they may be a bigger force to reckon with in a tough ACC football conference. And who ever thought we would be saying tough, ACC, and football, in the same sentence except for how bad they would be losing. 
© 5:29 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Can't Spell BCS without AP

On Tuesday, the AP decided to no longer provide their poll to the BCS as part of the rankings. As a result, the BCS came out today and released a statement proclaiming that they will be looking at changes to the system based on this news. They will be looking at possibly adding a selection committee, ala the NCAA basketball tournament, to determine bowl matchups. This may be the end of the "dreaded" formula as we know it.

The BCS should be thanking the AP for this decision. While I have previously praised the BCS for doing what it was designed to do, match up the #1 and #2 teams in a bowl game, I think that the design was always in question. The formula changed too often and was often changed too drastically to make up for what was seen as the flaw from the season before. Now the AP has given the BCS committee a chance to do something that is better for the whole sport in general. They will be able to form a great committee to decide on the best matchups for the sport. Important for the BCS will be to get the NCAA involved in the process and let the decisions be finally seen as legitimate. Let Myles Brand and the conference commissioners be involved. And include all of the current conferences in Division 1-A, not just the ones who get all of the television deals. Yes, that means the SunBelt should be there. If the major conferences get to beat up on Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana-Lafayette during the season, then they should get to be part of the bowl selection process too.

At the same time, someone should wave a finger at the AP. The AP claims they never gave consent for their poll to be used in the BCS formula. It is interesting that it took them 7 years to find out that the AP was a component of something that gets broadcast on the television each week of the football season and then gets trashed in the media for the rest of the year. The AP should have never entered if they thought they wouldn't want to be part of this at some point. To wait until they were criticized for integrity was waiting much too long to get out without a black mark on their record. Where did the AP go wrong? For starters, if the coaches were going to protect their members by not exposing the final poll voting (which I think was a mistake. Everyone's final ballot should have been public), then the AP should have held back their ballots.

Next, it was beyond reproach for one of the members of the poll to be criticized by fans for not voting Auburn in the top 2 in the country just because he worked in Alabama. To make matters worse, when the writer wrote a well thought out piece defending his vote, something that his editors should have been proud of, he was cut down by those same editors in the paper. The AP should have defended that voting member for having the integrity to vote with his brain and not with his heart. And while we pride freedom of the press in this country and the editor is entitled to her opinion, it is not appropriate for her to call out her writer in the paper and say that he was rude to the fans who wrote to him. If she had a problem with what he published, then call him out in private, or don't print his article. By calling him out in public, you add to all the poor press that the BCS has gotten and you potentially ruin a good man's career. It is unfortunate that the AP can't do something to punish her.

Finally, the AP needs to look at how they select the voters for the poll and part of the selection criteria should be prior voting performance. That would ensure that the three voters in Texas who moved their vote in order for the Longhorns to pass Cal in the final BCS standings would never get another chance to vote in the poll again. Granted, there was a lot of pressure on the voters this year. Instead of just the number of the ranking, it was the number of points that a team received which mattered. Suddenly, moving a team a few spots at the right moment could make a big change in the final tally. However, for these three voters to move their votes on the final week of the season, when Texas didn't even play, and to have all of the voters be from Texas, was too much of a coincidence to be kosher. The AP should look at a rolling list of voters, where no voter can participate for more than 3 years in a row. If there is something strange about their voting patterns, that voter should be removed early, and potentially for good. In this way, you make sure that good voters are always on staff and the actions of one person, or a small group can not adversely affect the final poll.

The AP got a black eye on this one, but at the same time, they hit the BCS back with a nice right hook themselves. The BCS in this case is the one with the raw steak to put on their shiner. Let's all hope, for the sake of college football, that they do the right thing with that steak and fix the entire scope of the game. The game itself has already taken too many black eyes this year and can't afford to have the true knockout punch come. 
© 3:59 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  New Orleans Bowl

Just when I thought I couldn't be more upset at ESPN broadcasters, the New Orleans Bowl happened. It is bad enough that the bowl even takes place. Writing up the preview and prediction last week, I didn't have very much good to say about either team. The bowl is pretty much a dress rehearsal for the Sugar Bowl in January, and exists so that the SunBelt conference actually gets an automatic bowl tie-in. The trophy the winning team brings home is a bronze replica of the Dome. "Men, you fought your heart out today. Please take this replica of our fine playing facility home with you." There is inspiration.

ESPN tried hard to hype this game. Because this game takes place a week before any others, it is hard to generate much excitement around it, especially when the teams in it are not very exciting themselves. Even the fans didn't show up for this one. As I said in my bowl prediction, this was essentially a home game for Southern Mississippi. If you looked at the stands, this is exactly what it looked like too. Behind the Eagles' bench, the stands were filled with yellow shirts. On the North Texas side, there were a few green shirts here and there. Attendance was listed as almost 28,000. They may have sold that many tickets, but I can guarantee that many people didn't come through the gates.

To top it off, and what really upset me about the broadcast team, was the constant hyping of North Texas Freshman running back, Jamario Thomas. Yes, Thomas has a great season, and yes, he had a great average yards per game statistic, but he was not the leading rusher in the league as they kept referring to him as. He may have led in average yards rushing per game, but he did it in only 9 games this season and those were games in the SunBelt conference. In the season opener against Texas, he ran twice for -1 yard. In the game against Baylor, he ran for only 58 yards. He had some success against Colorado. Still, the team is feeding him the ball almost 40 times a game. If Adrian Peterson got the ball 40 times a game, even 30 times a game, he would have put up the same numbers. Don't refer to this guy as the league leading rusher just because of that statistic when someone else put up better numbers for the whole season overall on less carries.

The MRI got this one right, though in the end, was anyone really watching and does it really matter? This is just another case where there are too many bowl games to cater to too many 6-5 teams. 
© 10:40 AM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Heisman Presentation

Sitting here watching the presentation is definitely a surreal experience. First, it is strange to no longer watch them broadcast from the Downtown Athletic Club, where they haven't been since 2001. That place held all the tradition of the award right down to the original name. Second, if you compare the numbers of all 5 candidates to previous winners, they all surpass the guys who walked away with the trophy. Choosing between these guys would be something more than I could comprehend, but yet, writers and previous winners across the nation have had to do just that. And so much for the East Coast bias as all 5 finalists are West of the Mississippi River.

All of the candidates amazed during the year:
Alex Smith - Leads a mid-major team to an undefeated record and puts up numbers to rival both Matt Leinart and Jason White. Remember that Smith does it all without a strong running back to help him, something that both the other quarterbacks obviously had. Smith's disadvantage comes from playing weaker competition than the other finalists

Reggie Bush - Trashed Desmond Howard's numbers when he won the award. Bush is the all-around player that will do anything for your team to win. Helped to lead his team to an undefeated season and a chance at a second National Championship in a row. Bush's disadvantage is that he doesn't specialize at one position.

Matt Leinart - Has only lost one game as a starter. Has led his team to a chance at a second title in two years. Impressed throughout with better numbers than Carson Palmer who was the last QB at USC to win the award. His disadvantage is playing on the West coast after most of the voters have gone to bed. Few of his games were broadcast nationally.

Adrian Peterson - The freshman sensation. Led the nation in rushing as a freshman and only had one game where he didn't reach 100 yards. Broke the record of consecutive 100 yard rushing games. He has two disadvantages. First, he got a lot of his yards in the second half of games after his team was already ahead. Second, he is a freshman and was hurt a little during the season which kept him from going over 100 yards in every game.

Jason White - The defending Heisman holder. He has put up better numbers than he did last season when he won the award. He improved on his touchdown to interception ratio and this season, led his team to the Big 12 championship that alluded him last season. He put his team into the title game for the second year in a row. His disadvantage comes not this year, but last year. He lost the Big 12 championship and the National Championship game last year leading to the question of if he can win the big game. Plus, voters don't like a two time winner as there has only been one.

How do you pick among these guys?

My vote would have been as follow:

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Matt Leinart
3. Reggie Bush
4. Jason White
5. Alex Smith

I picked Adrian Peterson because he impressed me more than any other candidate. His runs were something special to watch. He reminded me more of Barry Sanders than anyone else. He is obviously bigger, but he has the same skills that just amaze on every run. He will be something to watch over the next two years, but he will need a QB to come in and take White's place after he graduates this year.

Ask me in two years when Bush is a senior, and I would pick him. He has the most pro potential of anyone in the group. If there is one guy who will succeed at the pro level it is him. Watching Bush each game made me say "Wow" as his speed is something I haven't seen in a long time, but Peterson made me stop everything and watch each and every run. Bush has a great career ahead of him and if he can keep up these numbers, he will challenge Peterson the next two years for the award.

Even though White surpassed his numbers last season, I just don't see him as the best player this year. Peterson dominated his opponents, White competed and succeeded. Anyone who reads the MRI and follows what I do knows that I value domination.

Peterson won't win, but he deserves to win. My guess is that Leinart will walk away with the posing trophy. Good luck to all.

---

Edited after award was given. Leinart won with a bigger margin of victory than I would have guessed. He pulled in 80 more 1st place votes that Jason White. Peterson finished 2nd which is the highest finish for a freshman ever.

Next year's award will be interesting if Peterson and Bush put up the same numbers. And if Leinart doesn't go to the NFL, we might just have our second repeat winner. 
© 7:10 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  The Bowl Championship Playoff

Playoffs. The word brings back memories of Jim Mora's famous outburst when questioned about his Indianapolis Colt's chances of winning in the playoffs. His high pitched nasally voice screaming "Playoffs?" is one of my favorite sports sound bites of all time.

Unfortunately, no coach in Division 1 football is going to scream the word playoffs anytime soon. But let's propose a scenario that makes everyone happy and implement this system for this year, pretending we live in the future. We will even use this year's BCS standings to pick the field.

First, some rules:

1. No Automatic Berths: You have to earn your way in on the field. Once before I proposed a system with a 16 team playoff that included automatic berths for certain conference winners. As we saw this year, you can't count on the strength of a conference from season to season. Therefore, the Big East in this year's scenario will not have a team competing for the National Title. That is something I think everyone can agree on.


2. 12 teams get in, 4 teams get a bye: You have to give some advantage for finishing at the top. Right away, this would start some controversy. With Cal moving from 4 to 5 on the last week of the season, they suddenly have to play an extra playoff game. I can't control the voters in the human polls or Mack Brown complaining about his position. Perhaps without the threat of no BCS game, he wouldn't have lobbied so much. Since I can't change anything, we will go with this years standings.


3. After last weekend of the season, all teams in the playoff system get one week off: If you look at the schedule this year, that is exactly what is happening. This gives teams who hope to be playing football for the next month, a chance to take finals and keep the school administration happy.


4. Select Bowl games will become the playoff sites: Everyone wants to keep the Bowl System in place. It generates too much money and has too much tradition to not stay around. However, it needs to adapt just like everything else. Before the playoff system is implemented, certain Bowl games will be designated as playoff games. This will cause some bowls, such as the Rose Bowl to lose some of the tradition they are proud of. No longer will they be guaranteed a Big 10 - PAC-10 match, which is something that even under the BCS, they have lost. But, given the attention that the game will bring, they will probably change their tune. Higher seeded teams will be placed in the closest bowl game to their school. The Championship game will continue to rotate among the 4 big bowl games.


5. Provision For Future - The NCAA limits the number of football games a team can play in the season to 11. This would be including any conference championship game. Most teams will then play 10 games and the teams most likely to go to the playoffs will have 11. In addition, this may lead leagues like the Big 10 and PAC-10 to join with the other big conferences in adding a final game to crown a true league champion.

Enough rules for now. Let's look into the BCS standings and select the teams for this year's playoffs.

1. USC - PAC-10
2. Oklahoma - Big 12
3. Auburn - SEC
4. Texas - Big 12
5. Cal - PAC-10
6. Utah - Mountain West
7. Georgia - SEC
8. Virginia Tech - ACC
9. Boise State - WAC
10. Louisville - Conference USA
11. LSU - SEC
12. Iowa - Big Ten

Left out of the mix would probably be some teams that people would complain about. Michigan is the most obvious example since the Wolverines would not be in while another Big Ten team would make the field instead. That is the price Michigan pays for losing to Notre Dame and Ohio State. In addition, that is the price the Big Ten pays for not having a conference championship.

Assembling the field, we need 11 bowl games from the current set. We will use games which tie in only to the conferences involved in the playoffs. That leaves other teams not playing for the National title to have bowl games left as sort of an NIT of college football.

Here is what the four weeks of game would look like:
Week 1:
Holiday Bowl: #5 Cal vs. #12 Iowa
Liberty Bowl: #6 Utah vs. #11 LSU
Peach Bowl: #7 Georgia vs. #10 Louisville
Music City Bowl: #8 Virginia Tech vs. #9 Boise State

Week 2:
Fiesta Bowl: #1 USC vs. Winner of the Music City Bowl
Cotton Bowl: #2 Oklahoma vs. Winner of the Peach Bowl
Capital One Bowl: #3 Auburn vs. Winner of the Liberty Bowl
Outback Bowl: #4 Texas vs. Winner of the Holiday Bowl

Week 3:
Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Outback Bowl Winner
Sugar Bowl: Cotton Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner

Week 4:
Orange Bowl: Rose Bowl Winner vs. Sugar Bowl Winner

So, that begs the question of how this scenario would have played out. The only way I can do that is by using my favorite tool, the MRI. Obviously there are some great teams in this field, and a number of them are very close in the MRI standings. I will use the statistics I have on the MRI picking games and based on that, we will see what percent chance each team would have of being the National Champion.

Week 1: Three of the four games fall into a band where the MRI does not do quite as well. There were too many upsets over the past year in this band and therefore the percentage is a little down. Still, the MRI favored team has quite an advantage in all games.
Holiday Bowl: #5 Cal (65.75%), #12 Iowa (34.24%)
Liberty Bowl: #6 Utah (65.75%), #11 LSU (34.24%)
Peach Bowl: #10 Louisville (65.75%), #7 Georgia (34.24%)
Music City Bowl: #9 Boise State (76.71%), #8 Virginia Tech (23.29%)

Week 2:
Fiesta Bowl: #1 USC (73.84%), #9 Boise State (19.62%), #8 Virginia Tech (6.53%)
Cotton Bowl: #2 Oklahoma (58.38%), #10 Louisville (32.01%), #7 Georgia (9.61%)
Capital One Bowl: #3 Auburn (54.53%), #6 Utah (33.74%), #11 LSU (11.73%)
Outback Bowl: #4 Texas (58.28%), #5 Cal (33.74%), #12 Iowa (7.98%)

Week 3:
Rose Bowl: #1 USC (54.14%), #4 Texas (19.59%), #5 Cal (13.48%), #9 Boise State (8.85%), #12 Iowa (2.27%), #8 Virginia Tech (1.67%)
Sugar Bowl: #2 Oklahoma (41.91%), #3 Auburn (20.93%), #10 Louisville (16.77%), #6 Utah (13.15%), #11 LSU (3.83%), #7 Georgia (3.41%)

Week 4:
Chance of winning Orange Bowl and being National Champion:

1. USC - 34.53%
2. Oklahoma - 25.12%
3. Auburn - 7.96%
4. Louisville - 7.54%
5. Texas - 7.37%
6. Cal - 5.56%
7. Utah - 5.49%
8. Boise State - 3.09%
9. LSU - 1.09%
10. Georgia - 0.97%
11. Iowa - 0.74%
12. Virginia Tech - 0.55%

Looking at the final numbers, it seems that including teams beyond #8 in the standings doesn't really make for a better playoff. The only thing it does is give the teams at the top of the standings an extra week off to prepare. And it adds to the amount of money that an event like this could generate. Still, the league would have to evaluate if the extra week and extra money is worth the 3.35% chance that one of those teams will win the tournament.

It is an interesting idea. It is just a shame that it most likely won't happen in the next 5 years. Enjoy it for what it is worth. 
© 7:00 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Bowl Predictions, Part 1

28 games in three weeks. At the end of that, we will have a National Champion that everyone will argue about, and the world of college football will go on, as it does every year. So, what does the MRI say about the bowl games this season? Let's look at each match-up and give the prediction. This will be an article in 4 parts, starting with the earliest bowl games which begin next week and the week after. Numbers in parentheses are the regular season final ranking of the team. Confidence factor is the percent chance of the MRI predicting the game based on historical performance. The ranking out of 28 is the way I would list the picks with 28 being the most sure pick (Not according to percentage).

New Orleans Bowl: North Texas (70) vs. Southern Mississippi (77)
I talked about this one a little bit in the MRI two weeks ago. This should be a close game. Southern Mississippi losing to Cal on Saturday didn't hurt them too much in this match-up. North Texas, while winning the Sun Belt conference, is not the top team from their conference in the MRI. Neither team was in the top half of the league, though Southern Mississippi challenged for a while to be in the Top 25 after going 5-1 before dropping 4 of their last 5. I am giving home field advantage to Southern Miss in this one which flips the game to the Eagles. MRI Predicts: Southern Mississippi Confidence factor: 55%, 2 out of 28

Champs Sports Bowl (Tangerine): Syracuse (66) vs. Georgia Tech (56)
Syracuse almost became Big East champs when they beat Boston College on the final week of the season. They lost the tie-breaker with Pittsburgh and get to go to Orlando instead of the Fiesta Bowl. Their ground game will depend on the presence of their running back, Walter Reyes, who was out the final game against BC. And remember, this is the team that lost to Temple. Georgia Tech on the other hand will be looking to counter with strong defense to hold the Orange. They will rely mostly on Sophomore quarterback Reggie Ball, who will have to give a better performance than he did against Georgia in the season finale if they hope to win the game. Look for the turnover battle to be key in this one. If Georgia Tech can win that, they will definitely win the game. MRI Predicts: Georgia Tech Confidence factor: 51%, 6 out of 28

GMAC Bowl: Memphis (36) vs. Bowling Green (24)
Bowling Green is one of five teams from the MAC conference to be making a bowl appearance this year. Not a bad deal for a conference that only has two automatic bowl tie-ins. Bowling Green is in the MRI Top 25. They feature a monster passing game led by Sophomore quarterback Omar Jacobs and Junior receiver Charles Sharon. Jacobs threw for over 3600 yards and 36 touchdowns this season, 13 to Sharon. They also feature a pressure defense which over the course of the season forced 23 turnovers. Bowling Green only gave up the ball 8 times. Bowling Green has been much maligned lately as they backed out of their game with Auburn to play Oklahoma earlier this season. This caused the Tigers to scramble to find a game against 1-AA The Citadel. Memphis features a balanced attack with a strong rushing game led by Junior DeAngelo Williams. Williams led all of Division 1 with 22 touchdowns, 21 of which came on the ground. His 1828 yards was good enough for 3rd in the country, behind Adrian Peterson and J.J. Arrington. Memphis gives up a lot of yards on defense, mostly through the air, which leaves them open to Bowling Green's attack. If Bowling Green can capitalize on their weakness, it will also open up the rushing attack. MRI Predicts: Bowling Green Confidence factor: 74%, 21 out of 28

Fort Worth Bowl: Cincinnati (35) vs. Marshall (53)
As I wrote about in the MRI a few weeks ago, Cincinnati has made a huge turnaround this season. At 2-3, they played Army and snapped the Cadet's 19 game losing streak. At the time, quarterback Gino Guidugli said their team was the laughing stock of the country. That has changed. They won 4 in a row after the loss and despite a big blowout against Louisville in the final week, they played well. Guidugli was out for that game and his presence will be key against Marshall. If there was a team that screamed average this year in the league, it would be Marshall. They featured an average rushing attack, an average passing attack and an average defense. They were only +2 in the turnover category for the season. They ran out to a 5-0 start in the MAC, but late losses to Akron and Bowling Green kept them from the title game in Detroit. There is really nothing to distinguish one of these teams from the other. Despite the late season loss to Louisville and the earlier one to Army, Cincinnati was the overall better performer this season. MRI Predicts: Cincinnati Confidence factor: 71%, 14 out of 28

Las Vegas Bowl: UCLA (48) vs. Wyoming (73)
UCLA is the tale of two teams. They look brilliant against the bad teams yet struggle against any team that is equal or better than them. The USC game at the end of the season could provide some momentum for the Bruins in their bowl game. Playing as close as they did to the top team in the country, despite only gaining 17 yards on the ground should provide them some incentive against Wyoming, a team which they are clearly better than. Look for quarterback Drew Olson to step it up though he will have to rely on his offensive line to provide him more protection. He has only been sacked 18 times on the year, but 6 of those have come in the last two games. They will also have to support the running game which will need to perform better than it did against the Trojans. Wyoming finished under .500 in the Mountain West this year at 3-4. They lost to all three teams which finished above them and only made the bowl game because BYU was not eligible. They Cowboys have no standout players and despite putting up the third most points in their league, they still only managed 3 wins in conference. UCLA should look brilliant against this team as they have against every poor opponent this season. MRI Predicts: UCLA Confidence factor: 74%, 18 out of 28

Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii (74) vs. UAB (59)
This bowl game is home to one of the biggest scams in the bowl world. Each year, Hawaii gets 6 wins, and plays at home against some team from Conference USA. Last year, the victim was Houston, and the game ended in one of the ugliest brawls I had seen until this year's South Carolina and Clemson game. As I wrote in this week's MRI wrap-up, Hawaii pulled some miracles to get to this game, winning their last three including two over Big Ten opponents Northwestern and Michigan State. Timmy Chang, their senior quarterback now holds the career record for passing yards. And when you look at Hawaii, that is their whole offense. It is a good thing they put up big numbers passing (3rd only to Texas Tech and Bowling Green) as they average less than 100 yards a game on the ground, well less than the league average. Hawaii is also susceptible on defense, allowing almost 500 yards a game including 260 per game on the ground. Say Aloha to UAB. The Blazers are this year's team to take the challenge of Hawaii's ninth home game. UAB does not have a standout running back to speak of and most of the carries are split between Sophomores Dan Burks and Corey White, both averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season. With the poor defense of Hawaii, they should be able to capitalize. At the same time, Junior quarterback Darrell Hackney is one of the top 15 rated passers in the league. His 24 touchdowns were among the best in the country and tops in Conference USA. If UAB's defense can hold Chang in check (avg. 257 yards passing defense) or come up with some interceptions which he is prone to throw, they should prevail despite the home field advantage that Hawaii enjoys. MRI Predicts: UAB Confidence factor: 55%, 1 out of 28

MPC Computers Bowl: Fresno State (21) vs. Virginia (9)
This is the first bowl game in the list to match two teams which finished in the Top 25 in the MRI. And there is no better place to hold it than the blue turf of Boise State. This provides WAC member Fresno State with a slight advantage as they lost to the Broncos on this field earlier in the season. That was supposed to be the match-up between two unbeaten teams. Fresno State didn't cooperate and it was the last lost of three in a row for the Bulldogs. Fresno State features a big rushing attack, averaging almost twice the league average at 227 yards per game. Again, there is not one feature back but rather two, Juniors Bryson Sumlin and Wendell Mathis, who scored 13 and 12 touchdowns respectively. They are backed by Junior quarterback Paul Pinegar who was steady for the season but has the tendency to throw to the wrong team. His interceptions have improved at the end of the season. The Bulldogs feature an above average defense with better performance against the pass than the run. Virginia features one of the best rushing offenses in the league and that was its downfall in its two biggest games against Florida State and Virginia Tech. Most of the carries are done by Senior Alvin Pearman and Junior Wali Lundy with Lundy getting most of his carries near the goal line, scoring 16 touchdowns on the ground this season. Pearman has become more of the feature back as the season has gone on. Both backs also serve as prime receivers for quarterback Marques Hagans. With a defense that is good for holding opponents close to 300 yards per game, Virginia looks prime for another win in this one should their rushing game and defense stay true to form, but they have disappointed a lot when the MRI has them picked as the favorite. MRI Predicts: Virginia Confidence factor: 74%, 19 out of 28 
© 1:30 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Regular Season Ends

Whew! Are we all glad that is over? With the end of the Michigan State-Hawaii game on Saturday night, the regular season ended. Sure, we had controversy this year. The BCS made everyone upset again, though I choose to defend it and suggest that we keep it unchanged for a few seasons. There are a number of people out there clamoring for a playoff or a plus one system which would give a more palatable champion for them. I agree that the playoff is the only way to go, but it won't happen before the next BCS contract expires. Until then, let's keep the system the same. Don't change anything (except maybe when the human polls start to be released) for once, and let's evaluate the whole thing in a few years.

This season was a wild one. While every season has upsets, this one seemed to have them around every turn, though five teams managed to get through without a blemish. Considering the final bowl match-ups, it seems likely that we will end the season with 3 teams having no losses and possibly four (I think Louisville has the inside track on Boise State). The MRI did comparable to last year and picked a little over 70% of the games correctly. Hopefully it will do just as well in the bowl games, though the match-ups look to be pretty close in many of them.

In the end, the MRI agreed with the BCS and has USC and Oklahoma facing in the title game. Auburn dropped to 6th overall after two close wins against Alabama and Tennessee where more was expected from them.

Quick Hits for the Week:

• Joe Paterno split his first place vote three ways in his final regular season poll entry. It is a shame that more coaches are not as open as Paterno when it comes to their votes. Each week, when you look at the polls, there are always teams that you have to wonder how they got so many votes. If more coaches were open with their final votes, I think we would see more consistency and fair voting across the board. I salute Paterno for putting the top three teams in the country on the first slot together. If more coaches had thought that way, it would have made for a more interesting final poll.


• Give Hawaii some credit for getting themselves bowl eligible in the final week of the season. They started 0-2, including a loss to Florida Atlantic. At the end of October, they were drubbed by conference champion Boise State and only managed barely 300 yards of offense on that night while committing 6 turnovers. Hawaii for the year averaged 430 yards of offense. At 3-4, they split their next two games, including another bad loss to Fresno State. This left them needing to win their last 3 games, including two against Big Ten opponents. They managed to do just that, including a comeback on Saturday night against Michigan State. Down 28-14 at halftime, the Warriors rallied back behind the arm of career college passing leader Timmy Chang who added to his record total with 416 yards in the game. Hawaii will be staying at home for the bowl as they do most every year. Here's hoping this one isn't marred by an ugly fight like last year's game against Houston. That is the last thing that college football needs this season after the South Carolina-Clemson game.


• USC held UCLA to 17 yards of rushing offense in their very close game. Big special teams play kept the Bruins in the game. It looked like this might be the big defensive stand of the day, until Oklahoma's defense crushed Colorado for a loss of 4 yards on the ground. It will be interesting to see what Reggie Bush and Adrian Peterson will manage to do against these tough defenses in the title game. Should they be shut down, it will be a great battle in the air between Matt Leinart and Jason White.

That's all for this week. Look for a bowl prediction post on Tuesday night and a playoff scenario on Wednesday. The first bowl game is a week away. I will try to post a little before each game in a preview column, but with basketball in full swing, it may be tough. Enjoy the bowl games everyone. I am sure this will be a season to talk about. 
© 10:00 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments   

  Defending the MRI #1

In what I am sure will become a popular segment on both On the Field and Sitting Courtside, a friend of mine recommended that I begin to respond to some of the emails that I receive that question the MRI. Typical emails range from "How is [INSERT TEAM HERE] not ranked in the Top 25?" to "You seriously need a life." The life emails, I can't do much about, but the others, I can definitely respond to.

To begin the segment, I have an email from Dave B. According to his son, who is a friend of mine, Dave and I watch more college football than anyone he knows. Dave wrote:

Geez Ben, is there something wrong with the program? VA Tech beats VA by 2 touchdowns and are still ranked lower? Purdue, an average team at best, and Wisky who beat them at Purdue isn't even in the top 25? Utah at #2? Granted they have a nice record......but such a cupcake schedule! Texas Tech at 20 and Fresno at 21???? TTU with their typical no "D" and 60 passes a game offense, and Fresno coming out like gangbusters only to become the mediocre team they really are.

I know the stats dictate how the MRI ranks the teams and this is only my humble opinion. It continues to be a screwy season and may prove once and for all that the BCS system is an absolute joke.

Thanks to Dave for an email which offered so much to write about.

I love emails like Dave's because as a long time reader of the MRI, he knows that the statistics from the games drive the rankings and not the personal feelings I have towards the teams. That said, you would be surprised at the number of emails that I get proclaiming that I certain teams, such as Maryland or Notre Dame.

Let me give a little information on the MRI to start. Behind the scenes, I do run a number of statistics on the formula. First, the actual MRI numbers actually fall in a Normal distribution by some fluke of luck on my part. It is skewed a little toward the forward part of the bell curve, but still mostly normal. Second, the football MRI over the past two years has predicted the winner straight up in 71% of all games when home field advantage is factored in. I have breakdowns by differential using the formula that I use to make the picks. Most of these differential bands are over the 75% mark. Where the MRI does not do as well is in toss-up games, which I will explain. Last, in all these discussions where margin of victory comes up, remember that I use a weighted margin of victory and that you can't win by more than 35 in the MRI.

If you look at the ratings, you will notice tiers of teams. In the rankings this week, obviously USC is ahead of the pack. When you look at the next group of teams, from #2 to #7, there is a differential in MRI of a little over 9. 9 points is pretty much the break-off point for any tier of teams. In my system, when two teams are 9 points or less apart, unless there is a strong home field advantage for one team, the game is a toss-up. We have already seen this happen this year. Look at the Louisville-Miami game, or the Texas-Oklahoma game. When these were played, the two teams were so close it was hard to choose. The same was true of the Cal-USC game the first time around (though I still believe this would be a close one). What this means is that any team from 2-7 playing each other on a neutral field could go either way. When you think about the quality of the teams involved, it is not hard to imagine.

Now, Boise State is just outside this group and for good reason, with their recent close wins against inferior opponents. It will be interesting to see what happens when they play Louisville in the Liberty Bowl (less than 9 point difference, and my pick for the best bowl game of the year).

Because of their loss, Virginia fell from being an outsider from the top tier and being back in one of these groups below them, a group that now includes Virginia Tech. Virginia's loss dropped them almost 4 MRI points, which is a little less than half of the biggest drop this week. At the same time, Virginia Tech's win was good for 7.5 MRI points, or almost 2/3's of the largest gain for the week. Both teams were rewarded/punished for their
performance. If we move this game to a neutral field, we would again have a very close game (I contend the game was closer than the final score).

Now, Utah with a cupcake schedule? I would tend to disagree. While the combined record of their opponents was under .500, they did not play a Division 1-AA opponent which put their schedule strength in the MRI at 58, about right in the middle. Compare this to Auburn at 82. Utah performed better on a comparative basis against the lesser opponents. I do factor in opposing team's strength into the formula, and they are being hurt for the lesser schedule, but they have overcome it by a far superior performance. Meanwhile, Oklahoma in no way separated itself from Oklahoma State, Texas, or A&M when they played this year. They struggled in each game to win and gave up a lot in return to the opponent, though not in points to Texas. The key here was have a dominating performance which Utah had and Oklahoma did not (unlike last year where OK had many, against almost every team they played, and moved so far ahead that two losses at the end of the season still couldn't bring them back to the pack).

Wisconsin suffers from a lackluster offense which came to light in their two losses to end the season. Their defense finally cracked and the offense wasn't there to make up for it. I had pointed out Wisconsin's deficiencies earlier, just before it went on its two game losing streak. At the time there were 6 teams with no losses and I was certain that Wisconsin would lose before the end of the season. I didn't count on Michigan State being the team to do it, but between them and Iowa, it was definitely likely. Meanwhile, Purdue played the 11th toughest schedule and lost its four games by a total of 10 points! Two of those games were decided in the final few moments when a late turnover cost them. What I find hard to believe is that a team like Ohio State could be in the Top 25 rankings with the same record in conference and overall, and a worse performance over the course of the season in total.

I had thought about only ranking 20 teams in football this year. 25 teams is 21% of all the teams in the league, so being in the list between 21 and 25 doesn't really say much about your team. I couldn't just rank the same percentage as in basketball because that would just be 9 teams. Ranking 15 would probably be a better number but who am I to buck tradition. That whole thing leads me to Fresno State and Texas Tech.

Texas Tech has been around all year in the rankings and was finally recognized this weekend by the writers and coaches. Their defense is actually better than average in the league and while their rushing game is terrible as Dave correctly points out (They average less than 100 yards a game on the ground), they generate an amazing amount of offense in the air. I am guessing they end up in a bowl game against a better opponent, someone who will be able to exploit this weakness and stop them.

Fresno State caught some flack from me earlier in the season, but have rebounded from the stretch that saw them lose 3 in a row and won their last 5 games. In those games, they scored 42 or more in each game, and won by at least 30 each time. This was enough to bounce them back up into the top 25. Again, think dominating performances, both on the field, and on the scoreboard. Notice that this is the Top 25, not the top 15. If that is the discussion, we don't even hear about Fresno all year long.

Hope that explains a little bit plus gives you a little more knowledge into the MRI in general. Dave is correct that this season has been screwy and actually hurt the MRI percentage over the past two years. However, I expect to bounce back soon. If anyone else has an email question, please feel free to pass it on and let me attempt to respond. In the meantime, enjoy and keep on reading.

Just a note that tonight is the MAC championship game. The winner doesn't get a BCS bid, or anything particularly special. The MAC championship over the past few years is normally a good game (Discount last year when Miami rolled Bowling Green by 22). If you want to see some future NFL players, watch tonight. You may be surprised to hear their names called on Sunday in the near future. 
© 12:00 PM by Ben Miraski 0 Comments