Bowl Predictions, Part 3b
New Year's Eve will feature 4 bowl games for your viewing pleasure while you wait for 2005 to dawn.
Music City Bowl: Minnesota (34) vs. Alabama (27)
Minnesota looked like gang busters coming into the season. They broke out to a 5-0 record before falling back to Earth. They limped to the end of the season with a 1-5 run where the only win came against a very poor Illinois team, and it included a loss to Indiana. For all the problems at the end of the year, the running game wasn't one of them. Averaging 255 yards a game on the ground, the Gophers come at you with twin backs. Sophomore Laurence Maroney and junior Marion Barber III play tag in the back field gaining 1243 and 1082 yards respectively. Together, they scored 22 times. If the Alabama defense contains the rushing game as it has all year, the Gophers will rely on the arm of sophomore Bryan Cupito who threw for over 2000 yards this year. Alabama will need its defense to come up strong if they hope to win this game. The #1 team in terms of defensive yardage, the Tide is led by linebackers Freddie Roach and DeMeco Ryans. Bama forced 23 turnovers this season and was +5 in that category. They will need some help from their offense to win the game. Junior quarterback Spencer Pennington turned in a big game against Auburn when the Tide almost pulled the upset in the rivalry game and made things easy for the voters in the polls. He will need to duplicate that performance against the Gopher defense which should be vulnerable through the air. The running game will be led mostly by sophomore Kenneth Darby but the Tide is very deep at the position so look for a rotation in the backfield when Alabama runs against Minnesota. Alabama's defense should be too much for the Gophers to pull this one out.
MRI Predicts: Alabama
Confidence factor: 71.76%, 10 out of 28
Sun Bowl: Purdue (14) vs. Arizona State (11)
Purdue looked to have everything going its way this season when they started 5-0 and were up to #5 in the National Rankings. That was when Kyle Orton and the Boilermakers dropped the ball, literally. A fumble late in the game against Wisconsin was returned for a touchdown to bring down Purdue. The next week against Michigan, Orton fumbled again late in the game while driving to try and win. After those two losses, Purdue added on two more and ended up at 7-4 on the season. Orton is the big story for this team. He was originally on pace to look like a Heisman finalist but the four losses took him down. He finished with impressive numbers, throwing for 2800 yards and 28 touchdowns. His main receiver was senior Taylor Stubblefield who caught the ball 82 times for a little over 1000 yards. 15 of those catches finished in the endzone. Unfortunately for Arizona State, they will enter the game without their star quarterback Andrew Walker. He had crushed defenses to the tune of 3150 yards this season but now will just be watching from the sideline. Instead, Arizona State will be starting sophomore Sam Keller who saw limited action this season until Walker went down in the final game against Arizona. Normally when teams get burned this way, they will go to their rushing game. The Sun Devils will be hard pressed to do that. Earlier this week, they dismissed leading rusher Hakim Hill from the team and will be starting a converted wide receiver, freshman Rudy Burgess. Burgess was impressive in his only start against Stanford, gaining 186 yards on 34 carries. When Keller does throw, he will look for junior Derek Hagan who caught 74 passes this season for over 1000 yards. He hauled in over 100 yards receiving in four of the last 5 games. This is one game that the MRI will most likely get wrong as it does not take into account the injury to Arizona State's most deadly weapon. However, look for the young Sun Devil team to put up a good fight and start preparing for life after Walker next season. MRI Predicts: Arizona State Confidence factor: 51.32%, 8 out of 28
Liberty Bowl: Louisville (3) vs. Boise State (8)
Last season, a little hyped team from Utah defeated Southern Mississippi in the Liberty Bowl, 17-0. Utah used that as a springboard this season to an 11-0 mark and the first BCS birth for a non-BCS team. This year, Louisville and Boise State are hoping that the Liberty Bowl can do the same thing with their future. Louisville won't be a non-BCS team next year. Instead, they will most likely be favored to win the Big East in their first season there. But first, they need to finish what was an amazing season for the Cardinals in their final year in Conference USA. Led by Stefan LeFors, the top rated passer in Division 1-A football, Louisville will be all over the field with its many weapons. LeFors threw for 2400 yards in the Cardinals' season which was one bad quarter against Miami away from a 11-0 mark and their own BCS birth. 9 different players rushed for scores and nine different players caught touchdown passes for this Louisville team and the list includes standouts Eric Shelton, Michael Bush, Montrell Jones, and J.R. Russell. The Boise State defense, which already has some holes, will have its hands full with trying to stop this offensive attack. At the same time, Boise State knows how to light up the scoreboard. They put up at least 55 points in each of their final four games and didn't score less than 28 all season. At quarterback, sophomore Jared Zabransky will be a tough test for the Louisville defense, but he doesn't have the array of choices that LeFors does on his side. He will be looking to hit T.J. Acree with his passes as he has all season long. Acree finished with 890 yards and 7 touchdowns and averaged over 17 yards per catch. Lining up in the backfield will be junior Lee Marks who ran for 900 yards this season. Near the goal line, look for Zabransky to take it in himself which he did 12 times, or freshman Jon Helmandollar to pound it through. Helmandollar had 13 rushing scores this season, most coming in the last 4 games. The game will come down to how well Louisville's defense can contain Zabransky. Without him leading the offense, Boise State will be hard pressed to get the win. Then Louisville will just need to keep scoring as they have all year.
MRI predicts: Louisville
Confidence factor: 71.76%, 13 out of 28.
Peach Bowl: Miami (12) vs. Florida (22)
Miami started out with big hopes this season. After a thrilling overtime win against Florida State, they ran out to a 6-0 start, surviving that scare against Louisville with an inspired comeback, led by Brock Berlin. Then, things started to go badly for the Hurricanes. They lost back to back games to North Carolina and Clemson, two teams who weren't even supposed to be close with Miami. The rebounded with a win against Virginia, and their offense went off on Wake Forest. They finished the season with a loss to Virginia Tech when they still had a chance to win the ACC in their first season in the league. As a result, they get a chance against Florida in the Peach Bowl. Berlin was originally recruited to Florida by Steve Spurrier, but transferred down state after Spurrier left the program. All season, he took a lot of bad press and was blamed for many of the ills of the Hurricanes. After a terrible start, Berlin was able to turn it on, just as the defense started to lose track for Miami. He finished the season with 2500 yards passing and 21 touchdowns compared with only 5 interceptions. At running back, the Hurricanes will have junior Frank Gore who came close to 900 yards this season. On defense watch senior defensive back Antrel Rolle, who should cause fits for Florida's passing game all night long. Florida comes into this game hoping to end a crazy season on a good note. The team started 4-4 and that included a loss to SEC cellar dweller Mississippi State. During those first eight games, head coach Ron Zook lost his job and yet remained with the team through the end of the regular season. He will take over at Illinois next year, hoping to turn that program around, and will definitely have his hands full. Meanwhile, the Gators were able to turn in a 7-4 record, winning the last three games of the season and earning their bowl bid despite a lot of people believing they wouldn't come close. Coming in next season will be Utah coach Urban Meyer who should love what is waiting for him when he arrives. Sophomore quarterback Chris Leak will lead the team into the Peach Bowl. He passed for almost 3000 yards this season and 28 touchdowns. With him behind center will be junior running back Ciatrick Fason, one of the most explosive backs in the game. He ran for 1173 yards and 10 scores while catching two more. Fason has declared early for the NFL draft, hoping to support his wife and two kids. Look for him to try for a big game in what could be his final one in college. If Channing Crowder can stay healthy, watch him at linebacker for the Gators. He has 70 tackles this season in only 8 games, missing the better part of two of those. If Miami's offense is working, their experience should win out against Florida. The Gators have had too many distractions for this young team and being without a head coach in the final game may be a little too much for them.
MRI Predicts: Miami
Confidence factor: 71.76%, 15 out of 28
