Bowl Predictions, Part 3a
The MRI has taken a beating recently. 4-3 with the first seven picks, 2-3 with the next 5, and one of the wins was a 50-50 game. And after his performance last night, Teddy Ginn Jr. is now on the list of players to watch along with USC's Reggie Bush. I saw the man run 50 yards on a play where he lost two, avoiding at least 6 tackles. Hopefully things will improve as we go on. For Part 3a, we will preview the four games playing today. Part 3b will cover the Friday slate.
Continental Tire Bowl: Boston College (33) vs. North Carolina (69)
North Carolina will be playing close to a home game and maybe the fans who have started to pay attention to something other than Tarheel basketball will show up to give Boston College a hard time. North Carolina is starting to believe in itself. After starting the season 3-4 in what looked like another mediocre football season for the basketball powerhouse, the team seemed to find themselves. They won against Miami in what was probably the biggest upset of the year. The next week, they took on ACC champ Virginia Tech and played them to within a field goal. They then ran off two straight wins to get into a bowl and now the question is can they do it again. North Carolina will be looking for a big game from running back Chad Scott who seemed to spark their big wins this season, tallying 175 yards against Miami. As a senior, this will be his last game and he will want to go out on a big note. He will be looking to add to his six touchdowns in his last four games. Boston College doesn't do well at stopping the run and that may open the door for UNC. The Eagles will be trying to prove that they are not the choke artists they appeared to be after losing to Syracuse and costing themselves a chance at a BCS game. This will be the last game for Boston College as a Big East team before joining North Carolina in the ACC next season. To win, they will have to have a big game from quarterback Paul Peterson who sat out the Syracuse loss with a broken hand. He has had surgery to repair the break and will be playing against the Tarheels. Peterson is 11-2 as a starter and he will most likely be a big spark for the Eagles. He threw for 2358 yards and 16 touchdowns this season and completed over 60% of his passes. On the ground, look for two freshman backs to split the carries. L.V. Whitworth and Andre Callender will attempt to break through against a very porous North Carolina rushing defense. The Tarheels allowed close to 230 yards a game to their opponents on the ground and their pass defense wasn't stellar. The Boston College attack should be able to take this one and prove that they are better than the game against the Orange.
MRI Predicts: Boston College
Confidence factor: 51.32%, 7 out of 28
Emerald Bowl: Navy (47) vs. New Mexico (37)
New Mexico is 0 for the last 3 years and last year, they got crushed against Oregon State and made the MRI look silly for picking them. This year, they hope to change things and a 43 year history with a win in the Emerald Bowl. The Lobos finished second in the Mountain West behind a certain team from Utah who is just trying to go 12-0 this season. New Mexico doesn't score a lot of points, averaging just over 20 per game, but they don't have to. They boast a defense in the top 25 and punish opponents and their ground game. When they do go to offense they are led by Junior running back Dontrell Moore. Moore ran for over 1000 yards for the third straight season this year, but his production and scoring were down from the past two seasons. A big game from Moore will be key for the Lobos looking to stop Navy. The Midshipmen haven't won ten games since 1905. With a huge turnaround in their fortunes the last two seasons, Navy will be looking to add a bowl win to its resume and break that streak. Last year's loss to Texas Tech in the Houston Bowl saw the Middies rack up almost 300 yards on the ground and that will again be their goal this season. The Lobo defense will be tough to crack but Navy hopes to do it with a throwback option offense led by two seniors, quarterback Aaron Polanco and running back Kyle Eckel. Eckel ran for 1062 yards and Polanco added 844 more, scoring 24 touchdowns between the two of them. Polanco can throw when he needs to but the offense only had 1068 yards through the air this season so don't look for Navy to run many passing plays. Given the Lobo defensive strength against the rush, we should see them win their first bowl since the Aviation Bowl in 1961.
MRI Predicts: New Mexico
Confidence factor: 51.32%, 9 out of 28
Holiday Bowl: Cal (5) vs. Texas Tech (19)
For the second Top 25 MRI matchup, we bring the controversy. Cal finished the season just out of a BCS berth thanks to some fickle AP voters changing their vote on the final poll. Now they will be looking to take some revenge on the state of Texas with a win against passing powerhouse Texas Tech. The Golden Bears will have leadership from Junior passer Aaron Rodgers who impressed a lot of people by outplaying Heisman winner Matt Leinart in Cal's meeting with USC earlier this season. Rodgers is a completion machine finishing over 67% of his passes. He threw for over 2300 yards and 23 scores while leading his team to a 10-1 mark. Behind him will be two star backs. J.J. Arrington gets most of the press, running off 1845 yards in his senior season, leading the nation during the regular season. He also broke the goal line 14 times. Joining him in the backfield will be freshman Marshawn Lynch who added 602 yards and 7 scores of his own. The stellar Cal defense will have its hands full with the passing offense of quarterback Sonny Cumbie. He launched the ball almost 600 times for over 4200 yards and 29 touchdowns in his senior season. He did throw for 18 picks, but given that Tech doesn't run the ball much, this was the bulk of the team's turnovers. Cumbie will be looking down the field for sophomore receiver Jarrett Hicks who tallied 1108 yards receiving and caught 11 of those 29 touchdown passes. If the Red Raiders do decide to test a very tough Cal rush defense, they will go with junior Taurean Henderson who had over 800 yards and 14 scores on the ground. We have seen Cal shut down some very good offenses this season and Texas Tech will be surely tested with this game. Look for the Bears to go out to a big lead and wear the Red Raiders out for the rest of the game. MRI Predicts: Cal Confidence factor: 65.75%, 24 out of 28
Silicon Valley Bowl: Troy (38) vs. Northern Illinois (31)
When the Silicon Valley Bowl signed on again this year, the last two teams they expected to see playing would have been Northern Illinois and Troy. The game normally features a team from the WAC and one from the Pac-10. With the lack of strength that far down in the Pac-10, they decided to award that slot to a team from the MAC. And when the WAC didn't have enough eligible teams, they went with probably the best team from the SunBelt conference. The men from Troy will be playing in the school's first bowl game ever. Finishing second in the SunBelt conference, they actually put together a better season than conference champion, North Texas. Troy won two big games to start the season against Marshall and Missouri. They played LSU down to the wire before losing later in the season. On a roll of 4 straight victories, the Troy team does it with defense. Allowing just over 300 yards a game, they were +12 in the turnover department. They don't give up much on the ground but are vulnerable through the air. Senior defensive end Demarcus Ware was named SunBelt conference Defensive Player of the Year. Look for him to attack the Huskie offense up front. In the defensive backfield, senior Derrick Ansley is 3rd all time at Troy with 19 interceptions in his career. On offense, look for DeWhitt Betterson to lead the ground game. At quarterback, they will be most likely be led by D.T. McDowell, a true freshman who started and led the team to wins in their last 4 games. Northern Illinois is playing in its first bowl game since 1983. They finished tied with Toledo for the Western Division lead in the MAC this season. On offense, they will be looking to get Garrett Wolfe running against the tough Trojan defense. He rushed for 1572 yards this season and 20 touchdowns, making him one of the league leaders in scoring this season. If the Huskies throw, look for senior Dan Sheldon to get most of the catches. He had 919 yards receiving and reached the endzone 9 times. Northern Illinois should win this one if they can get running on the Troy defense. MRI Predicts: Northern Illinois Confidence factor: 71.76%, 11 out of 28
