Bowl Predictions, Part 2
The next five bowl predictions are here. Stay tuned for even more next week on Monday when the next eight will be done, taking us through New Year's Eve. Friday will see the release of New Year's Day predictions. The Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl will get their own predictions on the day of the games.
Motor City Bowl: Toledo (49) vs. Connecticut (46)
Toledo won the MAC championship game against Miami (Ohio) on the final week of the season. This was done on the strength of the arm of Bruce Gradkowski, who threw for 250 yards and four touchdowns. Gradkowski finished the season with the 5th best passer rating in the country. In the championship game, they also had big rushing numbers turned in by Scooter McDougle who had come on strong in Toledo's final three games, gaining 412 yards since become the feature back for the Rockets. The leading receiver for the Rockets is Lance Moore, who for the second straight season caught passes for more than 1000 yards. He scored 5 of his 14 touchdowns in the final two games so look for Gradkowski to seek him out when needing a score. Connecticut is in its second year in Division 1-A, and should have gone to a bowl game last year. Instead, they had to wait until their second season and the Big East tie-in before getting their shot. The Huskies will be riding the arm of Dave Orlovsky who threw for over 3000 yards and 21 touchdowns on the season. Orlovsky likes to spread the ball around, but unfortunately for him and the Huskies, he sometimes spreads it to the other team, throwing 14 interceptions this season. Until the game against Rutgers to end the season, he had not thrown one in two games. The Scarlet Knights were able to pick him off twice though in the high scoring contest. Instead of passing, Connecticut will be most likely to rely on the legs of Cornell Brockington. Brockington gained 1146 yards and scored 11 touchdowns on the season. Toledo may be most susceptible in the run game so look for the Huskies to drive the ball on the ground in the dome. UConn is very good in pass defense, allowing just around 180 yards a game. They will have to rely on that to get the win against the Rockets.
MRI Predicts: Connecticut
Confidence factor: 50%, 4 out of 28
Independence Bowl: Iowa State (58) vs. Miami(Ohio) (43)
Iowa State kept themselves out of the Big XII Title game and the chance to pull the big upset when they lost to Missouri on the final week of the regular season. The Cyclones have never won in the Big XII, and sloppy play in the final week kept them from doing that again this year. They finished even in conference play at 4-4 and one of their non-conference wins came against Northern Iowa. They have no standout players and struggle to reach 200 yards passing in a game and as a team barely completing half of their passes. The run game may be where they have their only shot. Steve Hicks will lead the attack. During the season he gained 903 yards but averaged less than 4 yards a carry. If Miami can shut him down, they will have no problem in the game. On the Miami side of the ball, coach Terry Hoeppner will be coaching his final game with the RedHawks. Hoeppner accepted the Indiana head coaching job and pledged to take his new team to the Rose Bowl. He will have one final task at Miami and that is winning the Independence Bowl. When star QB Ben Roethlisberger graduated to the NFL after last season, no one expected much from Miami. A stellar 13-1 record last season was only a memory when the RedHawks began the season 2-3 with one of the wins coming against Division 1-AA Indiana State. They turned it around to win their next six before falling to Toledo in the MAC title game by a touchdown. Miami is led by Junior quarterback Josh Betts who finished the season strong, throwing 7 touchdowns in the final three contests with only two interceptions and scoring over a 150 passer rating in each contest. Betts will have help on the ground from Luke Clemens though he was shut down in the loss to Toledo. Terna Nande will help to clog up the Cyclone rushing game at linebacker.
MRI Predicts: Miami(Ohio)
Confidence factor: 72%, 12 out of 28
Insight Bowl: Oregon State (29) vs. Notre Dame (42)
Oregon State played the toughest schedule in the nation this season, a title that is usually hung on their opponents in the Insight Bowl. Their only three losses in conference came against the big arms of USC, Cal, and Arizona State. They dropped the opener against LSU when their kicker, Alexis Serna, missed three extra points and they got run over by Boise State on Week 2. In between all of that, they played solid football. They should have won against LSU and played USC hard in a fog played game. They could have ended the season 8-3 and looked more like a team which should be, rather than the 6-5 that they are. Senior Derek Anderson will quarterback the offense, after passing for 3257 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. Along with receiver Mike Hass, they will look to take advantage of the slower Notre Dame secondary and go up early on the Irish. Their strong passing defense should give Brady Quinn and Notre Dame fits. When the Irish take the field, it will be because the players voted to be there. After the firing of Ty Willingham, the school almost backed out of the bowl game. However, the players got together and voted to still play under defensive coordinator Kent Baer. You know that Charlie Weis will be keeping a close eye on things from New England when this one kicks off. He will be looking for some sign of heart from a team that will most likely be outplayed on the field. The Irish began the season by losing a blowout to BYU, but then recovered to win their next three and almost looked headed for another dream season under Willingham to save his job. They were 5-2 seven weeks into the season and the only other loss came when they were embarrassed by Kyle Orton and Purdue. A last second loss to Boston College and a fluke win against Tennessee preceded two terrible losses to close the season against USC and Pittsburgh. The only solace that Notre Dame can take from those losses is that both of those teams will be playing on New Years day and later in BCS bowls. The Irish offense is erratic. With Quinn at QB, Darius Walker and Ryan Grant will split the time in the backfield. To win, the Irish will have to cause turnovers and for them, the best scenario would be to intercept some of Anderson's passes. If Notre Dame can win the turnover battle and stay with the Oregon receivers, they can keep the game close and give them a chance to win. With all the craziness in South Bend lately, the program can sure use it.
MRI Predicts: Oregon State
Confidence factor: 72%, 16 out of 28
Houston Bowl: Colorado (62) vs. UTEP (25)
One team battled huge scandals all during the summer, including accusations of rape and illegal recruiting practices that apparently have been condoned by their coach where ever he goes. The other team finished last season 2-11, the next to last team in the MRI, and is led by a coach that was fired from his last job before coaching a game when he woke up in a shady motel after a night in a strip club and took one of the strippers back with him. Neither team expected to be in a bowl game this season, especially after all of that. Yet, Colorado and Gary Barnett managed to back their way into the Big XII title game after going 7-5 and 4-4 in conference. UTEP and Mike Price had the best turn around of the year, finishing at 8-3, and coming in second in the WAC. UTEP will be led by Sophomore QB Jordan Palmer who has improved much over last season and threw for almost 2500 yards and connected for 24 touchdowns. Don't expect him to run out of the pocket much. All the running for the Miners will be done by Howard Jackson, who topped 1000 yards for the second straight year and added 9 touchdowns of his own. A strong passing defense should allow the Miners to concentrate on stopping Buffaloes Running Back Bobby Purify. Purify topped 1000 yards himself and also had nine touchdowns. He will most likely be their main offense. They will be hoping to improve on the 46 yards of offense they had in the Big XII title game. UTEP gets a home field advantage in this game since it is played in Texas.
MRI Predicts: UTEP
Confidence factor: 82%, 27 out of 28
Alamo Bowl: Ohio State (32) vs. Oklahoma State (23)
Both teams are hoping that Wednesday gets here soon, otherwise, neither team will have enough players left to put onto the field. In the past few days, Oklahoma State lost two defensive players to unnamed violations, and Ohio State has suspended its starting quarterback from the final five games of the season, Troy Smith. This is bad news for Ohio State as they were 4-1 under Smith including a final week win over arch rival Michigan. Instead of Smith, Ohio State will start Justin Zwick, who was the quarterback until separating his shoulder in their game against Iowa. Until the injury, Ohio State was 3-3, seemingly on a downward spiral as all three losses came against Big Ten foes. Zwick threw for 1000 yards in the 6 games, and managed only 5 touchdowns. The Buckeyes go with running back by committee, and unfortunately, Smith was also a big part of that committee, rushing for over 300 yards. Watch out for kick returner Ted Ginn, who should also be seen as the main target for the passing game. On defense, the Buckeyes normally shine, however, this year, they were not as formidable as they have been in the past two seasons. They actually lost the turnover battle this season. Watch AJ Hawk. No one has a better name for a line backer because that is just how he attacks the opposing offense. He circles around before he zones in and hits like a hawk striking its prey. On the Oklahoma State side, the losses on defense are not as bad as Ohio State's loss of Smith. Oklahoma State lost to the other four strong teams in their division of the Big XII, but that shouldn't mean they should be overlooked here. They played A&M and Oklahoma within a few plays of winning. Look for brothers Donovan and D'Juan Woods to hook up passer to receiver at least a few times on the Buckeye defense. On the ground, Vernand Morency was one of the top 10 backs in the nation with 1454 yards and 12 touchdowns. He should give Hawk fits as he and the Ohio State defense try to bring him down. If the Cowboys can get him running just enough, it will open up the passing game for big gains down the field, exactly like they struck against the Sooners.
MRI Predicts: Oklahoma State
Confidence factor: 74%, 17 out of 28
