Bowl Predictions, Part 1
28 games in three weeks. At the end of that, we will have a National Champion that everyone will argue about, and the world of college football will go on, as it does every year. So, what does the MRI say about the bowl games this season? Let's look at each match-up and give the prediction. This will be an article in 4 parts, starting with the earliest bowl games which begin next week and the week after. Numbers in parentheses are the regular season final ranking of the team. Confidence factor is the percent chance of the MRI predicting the game based on historical performance. The ranking out of 28 is the way I would list the picks with 28 being the most sure pick (Not according to percentage).
New Orleans Bowl: North Texas (70) vs. Southern Mississippi (77)
I talked about this one a little bit in the MRI two weeks ago. This should be a close game. Southern Mississippi losing to Cal on Saturday didn't hurt them too much in this match-up. North Texas, while winning the Sun Belt conference, is not the top team from their conference in the MRI. Neither team was in the top half of the league, though Southern Mississippi challenged for a while to be in the Top 25 after going 5-1 before dropping 4 of their last 5. I am giving home field advantage to Southern Miss in this one which flips the game to the Eagles.
MRI Predicts: Southern Mississippi
Confidence factor: 55%, 2 out of 28
Champs Sports Bowl (Tangerine): Syracuse (66) vs. Georgia Tech (56)
Syracuse almost became Big East champs when they beat Boston College on the final week of the season. They lost the tie-breaker with Pittsburgh and get to go to Orlando instead of the Fiesta Bowl. Their ground game will depend on the presence of their running back, Walter Reyes, who was out the final game against BC. And remember, this is the team that lost to Temple. Georgia Tech on the other hand will be looking to counter with strong defense to hold the Orange. They will rely mostly on Sophomore quarterback Reggie Ball, who will have to give a better performance than he did against Georgia in the season finale if they hope to win the game. Look for the turnover battle to be key in this one. If Georgia Tech can win that, they will definitely win the game.
MRI Predicts: Georgia Tech
Confidence factor: 51%, 6 out of 28
GMAC Bowl: Memphis (36) vs. Bowling Green (24)
Bowling Green is one of five teams from the MAC conference to be making a bowl appearance this year. Not a bad deal for a conference that only has two automatic bowl tie-ins. Bowling Green is in the MRI Top 25. They feature a monster passing game led by Sophomore quarterback Omar Jacobs and Junior receiver Charles Sharon. Jacobs threw for over 3600 yards and 36 touchdowns this season, 13 to Sharon. They also feature a pressure defense which over the course of the season forced 23 turnovers. Bowling Green only gave up the ball 8 times. Bowling Green has been much maligned lately as they backed out of their game with Auburn to play Oklahoma earlier this season. This caused the Tigers to scramble to find a game against 1-AA The Citadel. Memphis features a balanced attack with a strong rushing game led by Junior DeAngelo Williams. Williams led all of Division 1 with 22 touchdowns, 21 of which came on the ground. His 1828 yards was good enough for 3rd in the country, behind Adrian Peterson and J.J. Arrington. Memphis gives up a lot of yards on defense, mostly through the air, which leaves them open to Bowling Green's attack. If Bowling Green can capitalize on their weakness, it will also open up the rushing attack.
MRI Predicts: Bowling Green
Confidence factor: 74%, 21 out of 28
Fort Worth Bowl: Cincinnati (35) vs. Marshall (53)
As I wrote about in the MRI a few weeks ago, Cincinnati has made a huge turnaround this season. At 2-3, they played Army and snapped the Cadet's 19 game losing streak. At the time, quarterback Gino Guidugli said their team was the laughing stock of the country. That has changed. They won 4 in a row after the loss and despite a big blowout against Louisville in the final week, they played well. Guidugli was out for that game and his presence will be key against Marshall. If there was a team that screamed average this year in the league, it would be Marshall. They featured an average rushing attack, an average passing attack and an average defense. They were only +2 in the turnover category for the season. They ran out to a 5-0 start in the MAC, but late losses to Akron and Bowling Green kept them from the title game in Detroit. There is really nothing to distinguish one of these teams from the other. Despite the late season loss to Louisville and the earlier one to Army, Cincinnati was the overall better performer this season.
MRI Predicts: Cincinnati
Confidence factor: 71%, 14 out of 28
Las Vegas Bowl: UCLA (48) vs. Wyoming (73)
UCLA is the tale of two teams. They look brilliant against the bad teams yet struggle against any team that is equal or better than them. The USC game at the end of the season could provide some momentum for the Bruins in their bowl game. Playing as close as they did to the top team in the country, despite only gaining 17 yards on the ground should provide them some incentive against Wyoming, a team which they are clearly better than. Look for quarterback Drew Olson to step it up though he will have to rely on his offensive line to provide him more protection. He has only been sacked 18 times on the year, but 6 of those have come in the last two games. They will also have to support the running game which will need to perform better than it did against the Trojans. Wyoming finished under .500 in the Mountain West this year at 3-4. They lost to all three teams which finished above them and only made the bowl game because BYU was not eligible. They Cowboys have no standout players and despite putting up the third most points in their league, they still only managed 3 wins in conference. UCLA should look brilliant against this team as they have against every poor opponent this season.
MRI Predicts: UCLA
Confidence factor: 74%, 18 out of 28
Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii (74) vs. UAB (59)
This bowl game is home to one of the biggest scams in the bowl world. Each year, Hawaii gets 6 wins, and plays at home against some team from Conference USA. Last year, the victim was Houston, and the game ended in one of the ugliest brawls I had seen until this year's South Carolina and Clemson game. As I wrote in this week's MRI wrap-up, Hawaii pulled some miracles to get to this game, winning their last three including two over Big Ten opponents Northwestern and Michigan State. Timmy Chang, their senior quarterback now holds the career record for passing yards. And when you look at Hawaii, that is their whole offense. It is a good thing they put up big numbers passing (3rd only to Texas Tech and Bowling Green) as they average less than 100 yards a game on the ground, well less than the league average. Hawaii is also susceptible on defense, allowing almost 500 yards a game including 260 per game on the ground. Say Aloha to UAB. The Blazers are this year's team to take the challenge of Hawaii's ninth home game. UAB does not have a standout running back to speak of and most of the carries are split between Sophomores Dan Burks and Corey White, both averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season. With the poor defense of Hawaii, they should be able to capitalize. At the same time, Junior quarterback Darrell Hackney is one of the top 15 rated passers in the league. His 24 touchdowns were among the best in the country and tops in Conference USA. If UAB's defense can hold Chang in check (avg. 257 yards passing defense) or come up with some interceptions which he is prone to throw, they should prevail despite the home field advantage that Hawaii enjoys.
MRI Predicts: UAB
Confidence factor: 55%, 1 out of 28
MPC Computers Bowl: Fresno State (21) vs. Virginia (9)
This is the first bowl game in the list to match two teams which finished in the Top 25 in the MRI. And there is no better place to hold it than the blue turf of Boise State. This provides WAC member Fresno State with a slight advantage as they lost to the Broncos on this field earlier in the season. That was supposed to be the match-up between two unbeaten teams. Fresno State didn't cooperate and it was the last lost of three in a row for the Bulldogs. Fresno State features a big rushing attack, averaging almost twice the league average at 227 yards per game. Again, there is not one feature back but rather two, Juniors Bryson Sumlin and Wendell Mathis, who scored 13 and 12 touchdowns respectively. They are backed by Junior quarterback Paul Pinegar who was steady for the season but has the tendency to throw to the wrong team. His interceptions have improved at the end of the season. The Bulldogs feature an above average defense with better performance against the pass than the run. Virginia features one of the best rushing offenses in the league and that was its downfall in its two biggest games against Florida State and Virginia Tech. Most of the carries are done by Senior Alvin Pearman and Junior Wali Lundy with Lundy getting most of his carries near the goal line, scoring 16 touchdowns on the ground this season. Pearman has become more of the feature back as the season has gone on. Both backs also serve as prime receivers for quarterback Marques Hagans. With a defense that is good for holding opponents close to 300 yards per game, Virginia looks prime for another win in this one should their rushing game and defense stay true to form, but they have disappointed a lot when the MRI has them picked as the favorite.
MRI Predicts: Virginia
Confidence factor: 74%, 19 out of 28
