Weekly Thoughts
What Mother Nature failed to do a month ago, Georgia, North Carolina, and Maryland, managed to do on Saturday, wiping the state of Florida off the map. Miami, Florida State, and Florida, all lost on Saturday, marking the first time in 26 years this occurred. While that is a testament to the strength of these three programs over that time, it also shows how big a disappoint this was for all fans of the Sunshine State in their quest for a National Champion.
Of the three games, the one that you could see coming was interestingly enough, Miami. The resurgence of the Hurricanes offense over the past two weeks has masked the fact that their defense has suddenly become rife with holes. This is the same Miami team that held their first few opponents to an average of 215 yards, including only 165 yards to Florida State in their battle early in the season. Over the past two weeks, the defense gave up an average of 477 yards, and the trend continued this week against North Carolina. The Tarheels were able to roll up 545 yards against Miami and keep the game close throughout to give themselves a chance to win.
I have been asked how Miami was ranked 9th in the MRI going into the weekend, especially since I had them ranked behind the Florida State team that they beat early in the season. This is a good question, especially since Miami was leading many of the computer polls that are used in the BCS last week. As I wrote then, the MRI is much different from the BCS polls and takes into account a greater number of factors than those polls.
It was easy to see how they led there. Miami had the 10th best schedule in the league according to the MRI before playing the game. Being undefeated against that kind of schedule does win you points in the BCS. However, the MRI takes into account performance in those games, not just whose team has the most points when the clock runs out. Miami has dropped over the past few weeks because of their defense, losing ground against the average defense in the league, something that they had dominated early in the season. While their offense has improved, when you become a one-sided team, you are going to lose games. Your offense at some point will fail to score enough to overcome the failures of your defense, or your defense will fail at some point to hold the other team low enough to win with your lacking offense. This is the main reason I believe that Wisconsin will lose sometime before the end of the season. Their defense is impressive, but the offense continually leaves something to be desired. A prime example of that was their game against Purdue a few weeks ago, when a strong defensive play won them the game. Close games like this will happen to these one-sided teams and give them many scares over the course of the season. Miami's scares turned into a nightmare this week dropping them to 13th in this week's MRI.
I have to admit that I was worried about my prediction in the Georgia-Florida game after the firing of Ron Zook. As the week went on, not only did his players stand behind their coach, but the talking heads on television all believed that the firing of Zook was all it would take for his players to actually perform better. I still felt that I was right, but it took until the game on Saturday to be sure. Looking at the game, yes, Florida's players did perform better, but what was sure on this day was that Georgia was the better team and David Greene was the better leader in taking his team to victory. In the process, Greene tied Peyton Manning for most wins by a quarterback in college football over his career, not an easy feat. The fact that most of the time, no one knew Greene's name, while his team did get some press, makes this even more impressive. On Saturday, Greene finally beat Florida, a perfect addition to his resume. Now his team must concentrate on winning their division in the SEC and maybe an SEC title.
Of all the losses by the state of Florida this weekend, the most shocking was definitely Florida State's. The Seminoles seemed to be rolling. With Wyatt Sexton at quarterback, the team seemed to have new life. It looked to all like his lack of performance in the game at Syracuse was due to the hostile environment of the dome. Saturday changed all that. Florida State was once again unable to perform on the road and it cost them, not only in the game, but also in the championship picture. The Seminoles would have moved into the lead in the ACC with a win. That didn't happen. The Seminoles could have moved up at least one spot in the BCS rankings, even holding that loss from earlier in the season. Now that won't happen either. All this against a Maryland team which had been struggling, and which hadn't won against a ranked team in almost 15 years. This was not the game you expected that streak to end, and yet it did.
My apologies to the state of Florida. Now the only National picture that you have influence on will be Tuesday.
Quick Shots for the week:
- Oklahoma was able to survive a very close game against Oklahoma State this weekend in their annual match-up. After watching this, I am still unable to figure out how Oklahoma State was still in this game with a chance to tie late. The offense for the Cowboys failed time and time again. For a team historicly known for their rushing attack (Think short Heisman winner who played for the Detroit Lions), Oklahoma State went to the air more than you would expect on Saturday. Red Shirt freshman quarterback Donovan Woods was anemic in the first half of the game. Even when he came out in the second half, his only completions seemed to be on long 40 yard passes to his brother. His older brother, D'Juan Woods, proved his athleticism by his catches, many in double coverage. On the ground, the Cowboys did rack up 150 yards, but overall, they seemed to score by connecting on the big play. Oklahoma kept letting Oklahoma State back into the game, series after series. Teams looking to knock off the Sooners over the next few weeks can turn to this game film from this game to find the weakness in their defense. Finding the weakness in their offense? Well, that one is a little tougher.
- Purdue lost its third game in a row this weekend. This time, it was against Northwestern who for the second time this year, pulled a shocker against what was thought to be a top team in the league. First, they beat Ohio State, now Purdue. Northwestern has moved themselves to 3-2 in the Big Ten and a 4th place standing, something they haven't done since their Rose Bowl season under Gary Barnett. Give the Wildcats credit, as they are quietly a nice surprise in the Big Ten this, season something that no one could have predicted at the beginning of the season.
- I have one word for Texas A&M and Minnesota. OUCH! A&M's lost to Baylor was not what they wanted before taking on Oklahoma. This was the year they could have ruined the Sooner's championship hopes. Now the Aggies have to scramble to figure out what went wrong and allowed Baylor to stay in the game and go to overtime, winning on a 2-point conversion. Minnesota began the season on a high. After once again blowing a game against Michigan where they had the lead, the Gophers were knocked from the Big Ten picture. A crushing loss to Michigan State sealed that. All looked to be running well when they came back against Illinois and tossed a shutout while rolling up 45 points. Sometimes, all it takes is a big win against a down opponent to cure all ills. Unfortunately, the virus that Minnesota caught against Michigan is still hanging around. A loss to Indiana dropped the Gophers to 3-3 in the Big Ten and 5th in the standings.
- Auburn and USC keep on rolling. Auburn has the tougher road to travel to get to the Orange Bowl, but right now, it looks as if they have their 4x4 wheels rolling and conquering all. Let's hope neither team slips the rest of the way as Oklahoma did last year and gives us a championship worth rooting for.
That's all. Be sure to check out this week's
MRI standings.
B
