On The Field: And Then There Were Five...

Sunday, November 14, 2004

And Then There Were Five...

Wisconsin went to East Lansing with hopes still clinging for a shot at the National Championship. They left East Lansing Saturday night, without that hope, and possibly without a birth in a BCS bowl. Michigan State dominated the Badgers, making the much heralded Wisconsin Defense look like Swiss cheese. Wisconsin gave up 551 yards, 430 of which were gained on the ground. The result means that the Badgers have to hope for Ohio State to come back from their loss at Purdue this week, and beat Michigan. At the same time, Wisconsin must take care of their own business against Iowa, a team on a six game winning streak. Things aren't looking good for the Badgers who had put together a good season, one with flaws, but still a good season. I was pretty sure two weeks ago that they would lose a game before the season ended. After Saturday, I am not sure they won't lose two.

The other teams looking at the National Championship all fared quite a bit better this weekend. USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn were never in trouble during their games this weekend. All three team won by double digits and only made the title picture a little more muddied. With the release of the national polls on Sunday, Auburn was tied with Oklahoma for #2 in the AP, and trail by 2 points in coaches poll. It doesn't get much closer and the deciding factor right now looks to be the computers. It is highly probably that over the next few weeks, Auburn may pass Oklahoma in the human polls. With games against Alabama and Tennessee, assuming that they will win, they will look a lot more impressive than Oklahoma's games against Baylor and then the Big 12 North Champion (right now, Iowa State leads). So, the computers will decide it. Auburn leads Oklahoma in the MRI, and on Monday we will see if they have taken the lead in any of the ones in the BCS. With two weeks to go, did anyone imagine that we would have anything more exciting and thought provoking than last year?

Quick Hits for this week:

Boston College took care of one-third of their task. Their win against West Virginia leaves them in the driver's seat in the Big East. It wasn't pretty and they were outgained almost double in offense, but the points on the board at the end went their way. Temple shocking Syracuse on Saturday guaranteed that BC winning out would give them the conference title and a birth in a BCS game, no matter how undeserved that is. You have to tip your hats to the Eagles. No one expected much from them, including me early in the season. They have fought hard all year, including big wins against Notre Dame and West Virginia and have put themselves in the driver's seat. I am not sure their performance this year is worth $14 million, but it is sure a great way to end their final season in the Big East.

Every dog has its day. That was no more the case than this weekend. Seven of the worst 20 teams in college football won this weekend. This includes Temple, Duke, SMU, and current MRI dog, Buffalo. The Temple and Duke games were the biggest shockers. With the way that Clemson had been playing, including a win over Miami last week, there was no way anyone thought they would not survive their game against Duke. They may have been caught looking ahead to South Carolina. Temple, well, there is just no excuse for Syracuse. They failed to stop the one piece of offense that Temple has, quarterback Walter Washington. Syracuse was even playing at home, a place where they made Florida State look like they couldn't do anything. Congrats to Temple, shame on the Orange.

I learned three things watching the USC game on Saturday night. One, Tom Cruise is dyslexic. Two, if you don't like someone and you are invited to their wedding, you are supposed to stick your fingers in their wedding cake. I can't remember what the third item was, but you get the idea of how bad the announcers were during the game. Not that there was much to cover when Arizona had the ball, but at least they could have talked about football.

Ok, I am going to call it there. Have a good week. I know I can't wait to see what happens. Be sure to check out the MRI rankings this week.

Correction: Temple was home this weekend, not Syracuse. This is what happens when I write my article at 11:30 at night. There is still no excuse for Syracuse to lose that game, even on the road.
© 9:47 PM by Ben Miraski

Comments:

Ben,

I will have to completly disagree with your assessment of Boston College. As someone who has watched every Eagle game so far I believe that their performace this year has been gutsy and courgeous. Their two losses were away, very competitive and could have gone either way. It is not like they got blown out at home (like WVU)a fraud team.

They have not been able to establish their notorious power running game due to injuries, and they still come up with huge wins over Penn State (24th at the time) ND, and WVU. All this with a sub par quarterback with weak hands. They deserve to be much higher than 19th and I hope when they go to the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl that the committee marches them up against a good team (NOT UTAH!!)

If any team deserves a BCS bid from that conference its BC.

Also Temple was at home against the Orange.....

# posted by Anonymous : 2:20 PM

Correction posted on the Syracuse-Temple game. I can't believe I got that wrong after digging into Anish from Dream Job. Oh well, I will take my lump.

As for BC, I think you misunderstand. It wasn't so much that I didn't like what BC had done. I think they were underrated and overachieved all season to get where they are.

There is a formula in baseball called the Pythagorean Theorem, perfected by Bill James. Using the runs that a team scores and gives up, you can predict the number of wins that they should end up with for the season. Every year, there are teams which end off the prediction. The factor that moves these teams is simple: One-Run games. Those teams that do better in one-run games often out perform the prediction of the theorem.

I would say that BC has done this. They have not performed great, but they have that intangible "Heart" that they always talk about in Boxing. Their record is better than a team with their performance should have. Look at this weekend's game at just the yardage totals of the two teams and you would wonder how they won. In most of their games, one dimension of their team has out performed and they have won. They just don't have many games where they have been totally dominant.

My beef is more with the strength of the Big East in general. They are the 7th rated conference in the MRI. With the loss of BC next season, it is likely they may fall even further. As of right now, based purely on the numbers (and not the dollar signs), the Big East champion doesn't warrant a spot in the BCS games.

Boston College has played great, and I hope they win the last two games against Temple and Syracuse. And I hope they perform well in the BCS bowl (even though it will be against Utah). I just don't think that they are one of the 8 best teams in the country and deserving of the place. Here's hoping they can continue this great season next year in the ACC.

# posted by fxdirect : 4:23 PM

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